Leading status undiminished in Austin despite near-term slowdown

Still topping the charts on nearly every economic metric, Austin’s economy remains on fire. Its net growth since the start of the pandemic of 9.1% is considerably higher than #2 Dallas’s 7.1%. The tech sector (computer systems design, data processing, software, and computer manufacturing) has added the most jobs over the last two years along with retail trade, and management and technical consulting. We forecast job growth of 1.9% in 2023 along with an average annual growth of 2.7% for the 2022-2026 period. Restaurants, tech, management consulting, and state and local government are expected to lead job growth.

What you will learn:

• Austin has seen GDP growth of 13.9% from Q1 2020 to Q3 2022. This ranks 2nd of 50 metros, behind San Jose. GDP growth has been led by tech, real estate, and other professional services. We forecast positive but low GDP growth of 0.5% in 2023; thus, Austin will manage to avert a recession unlike half of the top 50 metros.
• Like its west coast tech peers, Austin has enjoyed tremendous GDP growth from the sector; however, unlike its west coast peers, Austin has reaped significant job growth from tech companies as well. The difference is largely due to the influx of companies and start-ups during the pandemic as many choose to flee the more expensive coastal markets and set up shop in Austin.
• Home to the state capital and the University of Texas, Austin has a significant state and local government sector which shows a net decline of 3,400 jobs (-2%) since Q1 2020. It is expected to recover these jobs in early 2024.