Research Briefing
A cautious 2023 budget amid the need to stabilize government finances post pandemic means that fiscal policy won't be able...
Debt
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Research Briefing
After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range...
Research Briefing
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation,...
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Research Briefing
It's been a horrible period for EM portfolio debt flows. The better news is that broader capital flows to EMs...
Research Briefing
Central banks around the world are raising interest rates and shrinking balance sheets, but financial conditions are not under enough...
Research Briefing
Soaring debt costs across advanced economies threaten to push commercial real estate markets into distress. DM REITs are likely to...
Research Briefing
Debt costs continue to soar across advanced economies, threatening to push commercial real estate markets into distress. We believe that...
Research Briefing
The cost of debt for real estate has risen steeply in recent months, as credit conditions tighten, loan margins widen,...
Research Briefing
We estimate the recent surge in swap rates – a key driver of mortgage rates – means that UK house...
Consulting Report
BIS Oxford Economics was commissioned to measure the economic impact of BNPL in Australia. Our research found that BNPL contributed...
Research Briefing
The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have...
Research Briefing
The ongoing surge in mortgage rates in advanced economies threatens to push some housing markets into steep downturns. Housing prices...
Research Briefing
Odds of a downturn in Canada have just crossed a tipping point and we now expect a moderate recession starting...
Global commercial property prices were barely affected by the pandemic despite the fall in output and changes in the structure...
Research Briefing
After multiple assertions that it would continue servicing its debt, Ukraine's government finally gave in to the inevitable, proposing to...
Research Briefing
Increased borrowing costs are raising corporate default fears in the US, but we believe higher interest rates alone won't be...
Research Briefing
UK commercial real estate costs will increase more sharply than inflation this year, resulting in the widest margin since records...
Research Briefing
According to early estimates, Ukraine's GDP experienced a 40%-45% contraction in March in the wake of Russia's invasion. In our...
