Research Briefing | Jul 22, 2022

A market-friendly debt suspension in Ukraine

A market-friendly debt suspension in Ukraine

After multiple assertions that it would continue servicing its debt, Ukraine’s government finally gave in to the inevitable, proposing to suspend Eurobond payments for two years and offering a voluntary reprofiling to investors. The G7 and Paris Club announced a similar plan to suspend Ukraine’s debt service until the end of 2023. With no haircuts involved, bondholders are likely to accept the proposal.

What you will learn:

  • Reprofiling will save Ukraine about $6bn over the next two years.

  • While helpful, the figure pales alongside Ukraine’s fiscal gap, which, even after restructuring, will come to $5bn-$6bn a month.

  • The country will continue to rely on external funding to finance the gap. And as the funding for the most part is in the form of loans, not grants, further, less market-friendly restructuring will likely be needed in 2024.

Back to Resource Hub

Related posts

Post

Global Industry: Red sea attacks are a shot across the bow of global logistics

The attacks on container ships by Houthi militants have, once again, revealed the underlying fragility of the international supply chains upon which the global economy relies. The longer the attacks go on and the more ocean freight carriers decide to avoid transit through the Suez Canal, the greater the disruptive effects will end up being.

Find Out More

Post

Weakness in construction and its related sectors show the impact of interest rate hikes

Ever since the onset of advanced economies’ campaign of interest rate hikes in December 2021 there has been a lively debate about the impact and efficacy of tighter monetary policy in terms of reducing inflation and slowing growth. While inflation has indeed fallen across the world, the relative economic resilience in the United States in particular, which has raised interest rates significantly more than the eurozone, has raised questions about if and how much interest rates are actually depressing activity.

Find Out More
skyscraper construction

Post

Chartbook: Global Construction Outlook Q3 2023

Global construction activity is now forecast to fall 1.6% in 2023 and rebound 0.5% in 2024 to $9.6tn. China’s real estate downturn continues to dominate the global outlook. We now expect a slower recovery in both residential and non-residential building activity – and anticipate a more muted recovery in Chinese GDP over the medium term.

Find Out More