Oxford Economics and ServiceNow fielded a global survey of 4,470 executives
at organizations where artificial intelligence capabilities are in use.
Saarah Ghazi
Downtime and service degradation create a cascade of consequences, costing Global 2000 companies $400B annually. But that figure doesn’t account for what’s below the surface. The actual cost is much larger when we consider downtime’s broader impacts.
On July 19, a faulty update from CrowdStrike’s Falcon cybersecurity software caused widespread “Blue Screen of Death” (BSOD) errors on millions of Microsoft Windows devices, severely impacting many industries including air travel.
President Biden’s decision to withdraw as a candidate caps a string of major political events that has roiled the 2024 presidential race.
The economy underwhelmed in the first half of the year while it transitioned to a more sustainable pace of growth, which often includes bumps and jitters. Our business cycle index weakened but is not consistent with an economy in recession, and the incoming data for June points toward a noticeable improvement.
President Joe Biden’s decision to drop out of the election doesn’t warrant any immediate changes to our election scenarios nor the policies we anticipate the Democrats pursuing if they were to win in November.
In this month’s Canada Up Close, Callee Davis, Economist, outlines how reducing temporary residents will sharply slow Canada’s population growth from its recent highs.
The outcome of the presidential and congressional elections this November will be pivotal for the outlook in 2025 and beyond. This week, join Bernard Yaros, Lead Economist, as he examines the impact of a potential Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress.
In light of the recent consolidation period, we think there is still time to capitalise on the gold price upswing that started in Q4 last year.
The unemployment rate is on the rise and has caught the attention of the Federal Reserve and financial markets. We expect it to rise further, but this should not be a trigger for broader worries about the health of the economy. Recent rises in unemployment have primarily reflected increases in labor supply rather than firings.
Indianapolis saw healthier job growth than most of its Midwest peers in the first half of the year. Industries that have added the most jobs over the last few quarters include ambulatory healthcare, construction, and arts and recreation.
Although Minneapolis added jobs in the first half of 2024 at a pace that exceeded the US average, it shed jobs in a number of office-based sectors. Industries that have added the most jobs over the last few quarters include state and local government, ambulatory healthcare, and social services.
During the next presidential term, the economy will receive a net boost from federal policymaking, and inflation will come in stronger, leading to a more cautious easing cycle by the Federal Reserve. This is the takeaway no matter the president and the political balance of power in Congress.
Each month, we forecast the dozens of price categories that underlie the consumer price index, and our forecast is for the headline and core CPI to rise by 0.1% and 0.2% in June, respectively. This would be another benign inflation print from the Federal Reserve’s perspective and reinforces our baseline forecast for a September rate cut.
Canada’s population growth will slow dramatically to an average of 0.8% annually from 2025 to 2027 after surging by 3% annually in 2024 and 2023. The sharp deceleration reflects the federal government’s new target to reduce temporary residents’ share of the population to 5% by 2027.
Our proprietary business cycle phase indicator reveals that industrial activity in the advanced economies, which has been in recession for the entirety of 2023, is on the cusp of recovery.
A Democratic sweep of the 2024 presidential and congressional elections would mean major changes to social benefits programs and tax policy. According to our modeling, a Democratic trifecta that enacted its agenda would lead to a stronger economy in the medium and long run.
How much of the picture for 2025 is dependent on the US labour market? In this week’s video, join Oliver Rakau, Associate Director, as he discusses whether there will be a divergence between centrals banks going into 2025.
With a substantial squeeze on consumers, Canadian metro economies face a challenging short term. Despite metro populations continuing to swell, we expect job growth across them to slow this year, and output per capita to continue falling.
Although GDP growth has and will continue to cool somewhat in 2024 and 2025, considerable momentum remains in the economy driven by steady consumer spending and robust job growth. We forecast that the range of growth rates across metros will narrow over the next two years as net migration rates normalize to pre-Covid-19 levels.
