OTAs generate additional travel demand for accommodation in APAC boosting GDP and job creation. Consumers in APAC also benefit from OTAs through more affordable rates offered to travellers.
Saarah Ghazi
In addition to generating significant economic impacts in terms of GDP and jobs, OTAs benefit the accommodation market in North America through downward effects on rates and by expanding the number of room nights available to consumers.
This report analyses the economic impact of the University of Exeter in 2020/21. The University of Exeter is one the UK’s 24 Russell Group universities, providing education and research opportunities across its campuses throughout Devon and Cornwall.
2023 is likely to be a difficult year for most Asian economies with growth slowdowns, stubborn inflation, and sticky policy rates. Plus, policy space is limited. China and Thailand are possible exceptions, the former boosted by easier policy settings and the latter by renewed tourism.
Revisions to personal income and spending data suggest US households accumulated a smaller stock of excess savings and have depleted that faster than assumed – spending $553bn, or twice as much as previously estimated.
With the world on the cusp of a property market downturn, we have modelled three scenarios for more severe housing slumps featuring negative wealth effects, falling residential investment, and tightening credit conditions.
We expect El Salvador to avoid default in 2023, but unsustainable public debt and dangerously low reserves will trigger restructuring before 2026. Fitch recently downgraded El Salvador sovereign debt to CC, and 2025 bonds trade at 55 cents to the dollar.
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that inflation is likely to recede next year, the outlook is highly uncertain, with evidence underscoring the risk of a more gradual slowing.
Our Housing Affordability Indices showed affordability worsened in the US and Canada in Q2 due to sharply higher mortgage rates. This is despite the pace of house price growth slowing in the US and prices declining considerably in Canada.
Anything but a 75bps hike of the ECB’s key policy rates after next week’s council meeting would be a big surprise. Headline inflation and various underlying price measures reached new highs in September and further increases are likely in the near-term.
Soaring debt costs across advanced economies threaten to push commercial real estate markets into distress. DM REITs are likely to remain under pressure in this environment, but look well positioned due to the combination of low leverage, limited near term debt maturities, and steep discounts to NAV.
Egyptian authorities met with IMF staff on the sidelines of the IMF and the World Bank annual meetings held in Washington over October 10 – 16 to discuss the soon-to-be-announced economic reform package.
With Liz Truss’s agenda of tax cuts and supply-side reforms dead before it had even begun, her resignation as UK prime minister has limited immediate implications for the economic outlook. More political uncertainty won’t help, but fear of the markets means that whoever replaces Truss will likely pursue the fiscally austere polices signalled by the current Chancellor.
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case for investing in Canadian apartments/multi-family commercial real estate.
The new UK Chancellor’s decision to reverse almost all September’s mini-Budget tax cuts plus action to limit the cost of the cap on energy bills appear to have calmed markets. Gilt yields are down and sterling is stronger.
Debt costs continue to soar across advanced economies, threatening to push commercial real estate markets into distress. We believe that the transmission mechanism for forced selling will be refinancing shortfalls, but interest coverage ratios are also looking dangerously low.
After five consecutive years of production cuts, Japan’s key auto industry looks poised for recovery. Unfilled orders are still elevated, so the gradual easing of the semiconductor shortage that began in early summer should enable auto production to continue to bounce back into early-2023.
Supply chain strains eased in September after increasing slightly in August. Transportation pressures subsided the most of all our tracker’s components, price pressures recorded a third straight monthly decline, and inventories improved.
In our view, the IMF’s recent downgrade of its global GDP growth forecast looks too optimistic. The IMF estimates that global growth in 2023 will be similar to 2019 – soft, but not a disaster – and that a global recession will likely be avoided. By contrast, our forecasts are much weaker and we think the global economy is on the cusp of recession.
The cost of debt for real estate has risen steeply in recent months, as credit conditions tighten, loan margins widen, and recession fears start to bite. Consequently, the implied prime yield required for a levered acquisition has risen 100bps-200bps since Q1 in key cities.
