Our modelling shows European real estate is most exposed to inflation and bond-yield shocks, with impacts varying widely across cities and sectors.
Ryan Hadden
The UK’s productivity performance has been lacklustre since the 2008 global financial crisis—both historically and relative to its international peers.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government has updated the English indices of deprivation, providing a granular view of the geography of deprivation.
The Budget on November 26 will be a key test of market confidence in the UK government’s fiscal approach. If the government missteps and markets take fright, we think that sterling depreciation would accompany higher gilt yields.
The abrupt fall of the French government today will increase pressure on President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and hold snap elections to try and break the deadlock. We think this is now the most likely scenario.
The next Czech government will inherit a relatively fast-growing consumer-driven economy, but also a host of difficult medium-term challenges.
Blog GCC: Fed rate cut unlocks further boost for domestic demand The resumption of the US Fed’s rate cutting cycle in September 2025 is set to create a more favourable credit environment across the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). With regional currencies closely pegged to the US dollar, moves by the Fed are … Read more
The Eurozone economy has held up against geopolitical challenges but faces lacklustre growth in the near term, with global demand and uncertainty weighing on exports and investment. GDP growth is forecast at 0.8% in 2026, below consensus.
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions, structural weakness in the Chinese economy, the stance of monetary and fiscal policy, and financial market conditions.
France’s fragile coalition government looks set to lose a confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Consequently, Prime Minister François Bayrou’s deficit target of 4.6% of GDP now seems dead in the water, and the next government’s target will likely be much more modest, confirming our view that France cannot undertake meaningful fiscal consolidation in the current fractured political environment.
Over the past decade, the UK population has continued to grow steadily, recording stronger growth rates than many European peer nations. This has largely been driven by the continued growth in international migration.
France’s fragile coalition government looks set to lose a confidence vote scheduled on September 8. Consequently, Prime Minister François Bayrou’s deficit target of 4.6% of GDP now seems dead in the water, and the next government’s target will likely be much more modest, confirming our view that France cannot undertake meaningful fiscal consolidation in the current fractured political environment.
We still expect the Bank of England to cut Bank Rate by 25bps again in November, despite August’s unexpectedly tight vote and the Monetary Policy Committee raising its inflation forecasts. However, our call is made with much less confidence than before.
We expect UK employment will dip slightly in the second half of this year, as job cuts in lowerpaid parts of the private sector more than offset continued solid public sector job creation.
Cotton prices are forecast to remain weak in 2024 due to strong global supply and sluggish demand, weighed down by US trade tariffs, weak consumer spending, and rising competition from synthetics.
Tariffs spark uncertainty in the global industrial sector, raising recession risks. What’s next for businesses? Discover insights from Oxford Economics.
Surging crude oil price from Iran-Israel conflict puts global GDP at risk. Is the world economy on the edge of another downturn?
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions, structural weakness in the Chinese economy, the stance of monetary and fiscal policy, and financial market conditions.
Despite the recent appreciation, our The flurry of tariff announcements by the US government over recent weeks have impacted on our UK and global forecasts, published this week. Here, we explain the changes for the UK.
The imposition of larger-than-expected tariffs on US imports will lead us to cut our UK growth forecast.
