Cotton prices weighed down by loose market fundamentals

Cotton prices will remain subdued in 2025, under pressure from ample global supply and sluggish demand. Our forecast sees only a modest recovery in 2026, as planting intentions point to reduced acreage and gradually tightening supply.

US tariffs and retaliatory measures continue to weigh on global cotton demand by stifling consumer spending and constraining textile production in key export markets. Meanwhile, growing use of synthetic fibres adds structural pressure on cotton, though a low cotton-to-crude oil price ratio could lend some support—especially if energy prices remain elevated.

Despite healthy harvests this season, lower planting intentions for 2025/2026 could help stabilise prices. We forecast ICE cotton prices to average 66 cents/lb in 2025 and 66.5 cents/lb in 2026.

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