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We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
Using alternative data in macro forecasting and research

with Innes McFee and Tomas Dvorak | Online | October 26, 2023

Alternative data are a promising area of economic forecasting and analysis. Novel indicators such as mobility, electricity consumption, internet searches, or proprietary sentiment indices allow us to track economic developments and trends with a much shorter lag, at much higher frequency, and often on a much more granular scale than when relying on standard aggregate macro data. In this webinar, we assess the use of alternative data in macroeconomic forecasting and research, including common pitfalls, appropriate methods and best practices based on our continued use of alternative data at Oxford Economics. We also demonstrate the existing uses of alternative data in different lines of work at Oxford Economics.

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Webinar
Middle East: Non-energy sectors on track to power 2024 recovery

with Scott Livermore and Maya Senussi | Online | October 23, 2023

The negative impact of oil output cuts on the GCC outlook looks set to extend into 2024. However, growth will improve on this year thanks to thriving non-energy sectors. We outline reasons for optimism against the backdrop of domestic and external headwinds.

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Webinar
Nordic outlook: Tighter monetary policy will weigh on activity

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper-Scott and Nico Palesch | Online | October 20, 2023

The Nordic economies face a difficult near-term outlook as weak demand and tight financial conditions weigh on activity. Although headline inflation is on its way down, core inflation is proving more stubborn with central banks sticking to a hawkish stance. In this webinar, we will present our macro, cities, and industry outlook and also deep-dive into the extraordinary rise of Denmark’s pharmaceutical industry and the persistent weakness of Sweden’s krona.

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Webinar
European Travel Trends & Outlook going into the shoulder season

with Chloe Parkins, Jennifer Iduh and Diego Maldonado | Online | October 19, 2023

International travel continues to recover this year, with some destinations experiencing a strong summer period, edging closer to pre-pandemic levels. This webinar will look into how destinations have performed over summer and its implications on recovery and performance going into the shoulder season. Will also include some insights on destinations with a contribution from TCI Research as well as from ETC and the Tourism Economics team.

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Webinar
Why the crisis in crisis resolution could go on for decades

with Gabriel Sterne and Maya Senussi | Online | October 18, 2023

Stricken sovereigns are suffering as China and the Western-dominated IMF Board engage in a titanic wrestling match over crisis-resolution architecture. It’s a massive problem that could be a destructive force for decades. In considering the arguments there’s one thing that almost all commentary has missed: China has a strong case to feel wronged.

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Webinar
Global Climate Service – From Bright to Bleak: Taking Stock of Climate Futures

with Beatrice Tanjangco, Toby Whittington and Manuela Kiehl | Online | October 17, 2023

Oxford Economics produces climate scenarios updated quarterly, using our world class models to quantify physical and transitional risks at a macroeconomic and sectoral level. Our models are hybrid structural models with transparent, verifiable channels and clear, detailed reporting on assumptions and methodology. This quarter we have expanded our coverage to highlight the full spectrum of the physical and transition risks associated with climate change. Scenarios at the tail end of distribution such as Energy Disorder focusses on energy security and Climate Catastrophe focuses on what happens if governments fail to meet policy pledges – both mean the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere intensifies and result in more severe physical damages that accelerate over time. These scenarios are critical for risk assessment. At the other end of the spectrum, there are multiple paths to keep temperatures in check, and these can be transformative or disruptive. In this webinar, we will present our findings across a range of net zero scenarios and the more extreme physical risk scenarios. We will also discuss new model developments and updates to our fossil fuel demand forecasting methodology.

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Webinar
Global spillovers from a weaker China

with Adam Slater and Innes McFee | Online | October 16, 2023

We examine how a weaker China could affect the global economy, assessing the importance of real economy and financial channels. We also report the results of a detailed modelling exercise looking at the global and cross-country impacts of a negative growth shock in China centred on real estate markets.

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Webinar
Quarterly Cities Overview Webinar: Hotspots for growth in 2024

with Richard Holt and Anthony Bernard-Sasges | Online | October 12, 2023

Identifying hotspots for economic growth in 2024. Many cities tend to outperform their national economies. With the possibility that 2024 will be another disappointing year for the world economy, we look at North America, Europe and Asia Pacific, and identify some cities that we think are likely to show out-performance.

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Webinar
Travel growth to continue to defy economic slowdown

with Helen McDermott and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 11, 2023

International travel recovery has continued throughout 2023 to date and is set for further growth into 2024 despite slowdown and considerable uncertainty in key economic drivers. Consumers are prioritising travel experiences over other discretionary spending while some continued rebalancing of domestic and international travel is evident. We will also explore the extent to which emerging market demand will become a key driver.

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Webinar
Luxury cruising – the new normal

with Dave Goodger and Christian Savelli | Online | October 10, 2023

Luxury cruise capacity is set to nearly double by 2028, with the Luxury Segment capacity on track to expand 87% compared to 2019, three times the growth rate for the overall industry. This boom is being fuelled in part by new entrants, ramping up competition for existing operators. However, pricing remains robust as the segment has been underserved, while luxury travel demand remains robust.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Economy stalls as hard landing inexorably grinds nearer

with Tony Stillo and Callee Davis | Online | October 5, 2023

Canada's economy has now likely fallen into the recession that we have long been expecting. Growth stalled in two of the last three quarters and momentum entering Q3 was weak. Key imbalances – highly indebted households and overvalued house prices – can't evade the coming full impact of the Bank of Canada's aggressive hike in the policy rate. An imminent consumer pullback, combined with a deepening housing correction, will finally push the economy into recession.

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Webinar
Is city travel recovery a return to pre-pandemic norms?

with Dave Goodger, Kieran Ferran and Emma Laverty | Online | October 3, 2023

City tourism recovery continues and our latest forecast update suggests that 2023 will be the year when many markets will regain 2019 levels in terms of total arrivals (international and domestic) with many more on the cusp of a recovery. But the balance of travel segments has changed, and recovery in some international and long-haul segments will take longer for many cities. We will discuss the latest trends in this session as well as the reasons why recovery to date may differ from prior expectations. Any problems associated with over tourism will also be discussed as we reach previous pre-pandemic peaks.

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Webinar
Hausse des taux et croissance, arrive-t-on au point de rupture?

with Pierre Delage and Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | September 29, 2023

Tandis que la vague inflationniste reflue progressivement, le resserrement monétaire commence à peser sur la croissance, les dernières données indiquant un net ralentissement. Jusqu’à quand la reprise des services pourra-t-elle soutenir la croissance face à une industrie atone? L'Europe manque de relai entre une croissance aux États-Unis freinée par la Fed, et le ralentissement structurel chinois accentué pour la chute immobilière, peut-elle résister? Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
Air Passenger Forecasts Webinar: Growth outlook defies macroeconomic challenges

with Stephen Rooney and Rachel Yuting Fan | Online | September 27, 2023

Despite a subdued macroeconomic backdrop, air passenger traffic growth has remained steady through to July. Further, ticket sales indicate sustained demand in the months ahead. In this webinar we will discuss the industry's recent performance, its short and long-run prospects, and the underlying macroeconomic climate. Potential risks which could derail the outlook will also be explored.

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Webinar
US Construction Outlook- Cost Increases & Labour Shortages

with Adrian Hart and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | September 26, 2023

2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions?2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions? • How does the outlook vary across states and metros? • When will residential construction activity rebound? • What do construction industry capacity constraints mean for the delivery of the IIJA? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs? • What is our outlook for construction costs?

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Webinar
Global soft patch to push central banks towards policy pivot

with Ben May | Online | September 22, 2023

Economic resilience has been the key theme for the first half of 2023, but we have repeatedly argued that this unexpected strength mainly reflects spending borrowed from the future. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that the transition to weaker growth has begun. We expect a combination of a steady easing in headline and core inflation over the coming months and recessions or lacklustre growth to prompt the Fed and the European Central Bank to start cutting rates in April or May next year. The subsequent speed of policy loosening will be slow, in line with past cycles where cuts begun whilst core inflation was above target.

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Webinar
The policy cycle is peaking but is European CRE out of the woods?

with Mark Unsworth and Tomas Dvorak | Online | September 21, 2023

As we approach the peak of the monetary tightening cycle we assess what this means for UK and eurozone economic growth, inflation and interest rates. We explore the latest developments in the European commercial real estate market and assess if values have reached a turning point.

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Webinar
W oczekiwaniu na odbicie gospodarcze: Świat, Europa, Polska

with Mateusz Urban | Online | September 20, 2023

Globalna aktywność gospodarcza pozostaje pod presją podwyższonej inflacji i, przede wszystkim, znacznego zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej utrzymującego znaczną część gospodarek rozwiniętych na granicy stagnacji. Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
Commodities: prospects uncertain amid tepid Chinese demand, Fed tightness and potential further OPEC+ supply reductions

with Kiran Ahmed and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | September 19, 2023

Commodity markets remain carefully balanced amid uncertain Chinese demand, a tighter Fed policy outlook and the potential for further supply reductions by OPEC+ members. Recent stimulus efforts aimed at the Chinese property sector have given some cause for optimism but doubts remain as to the longevity of any demand rally. At the same time, the natural gas sector readies itself for the winter season amid significantly improved circumstances than were present this time last year.

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