Worst-case/best-case US tariff scenarios

Our baseline forecast assumes the US effective tariff rate will end up at 24% in the long run, but the range of possible outcomes is wide. Using Oxford Economics’ Global Economic Model (GEM), we have simulated two alternative tariff scenarios that bookend the range of possible trade developments.

As President Trump’s tariff agenda evolves, the implications for businesses and the economy are significant. With potential tariff rates fluctuating and a 90-day pause on certain duties, understanding the landscape is crucial for strategic planning.

Our latest research dives into three potential tariff configurations through 2028, offering insights that could shape your business decisions. Stay informed and prepared for the changes ahead.

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