Global trade caught between trade wars and regional wars

Global trade is being squeezed from all sides. The war in the Middle East has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off a quarter of global energy exports and sending oil prices surging. At the same time, the clock is ticking on US tariffs following the Supreme Court’s February ruling, creating fresh uncertainty for businesses and supply chains come July.

In response, global trade patterns are shifting at breakneck speed. Economies are racing to diversify supply chains, establish transhipment routes, deepen trade ties and integrate into emerging production hubs. Yet while new trade agreements and strategic partnerships are proliferating, protectionism remains alive and well – with China increasingly in the firing line.

Join us as we unpack the forces reshaping global trade: from conflict and tariffs to supply chain realignment, industrial policy and the race for strategic advantage.

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Speakers

Harry Murphy Cruise

Harry Murphy Cruise is the Head of Economic Research and Global Trade at Oxford Economics Australia. He leads the Australian Macroeconomic Service and global trade initiatives, including TradePrism. Harry frequently provides insights to major media outlets, including CNBC, BBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal. His research primarily focuses on global trade and investment flows, with particular interest in the challenges and opportunities of economic decoupling.

Harry holds a master’s degree in international and development economics from the Australian National University and a bachelor’s degree in arts and commerce from Monash University. He is a PhD candidate at ANU, exploring the role of China’s diverse households and firms in the country’s economic transition.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Harry was the Head of China and Australia Economics at Moody’s Analytics. He was previously responsible for Australian state and territory analysis at Deloitte Access Economics.

Head of Economic Research and Global Trade