Webinar

Commodities Outlook Q2: Middle east conflict and global commodity price implications

18 June 2026

3 sessions:

18 June 2026 – 10.00am BST (London)
18 June 2026 – 10.00am HKT (Hong Kong)
18 June 2026 – 12.00pm EDT (New York)

online

As the conflict in the Middle East enters its fourth month, markets remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy and commodity trade. We examine the implications for oil and gas markets, aluminium supply chains, and sulphur exports, alongside the effects on fertiliser markets and agricultural costs.

As the conflict in the Middle East enters its fourth month, markets remain highly sensitive to developments around the Strait of Hormuz—a critical chokepoint for global energy and commodity trade. In this commodities webinar, we examine the implications for oil and gas markets, aluminium supply chains, and sulphur exports, alongside the effects on fertiliser markets and agricultural costs.

We will also explain how energy markets are responding to the shock, including the demand, supply and inventory response in oil and gas markets, and what this means for the price outlook.

We will explore how tighter energy and industrial input markets could influence metals prices, fertiliser production, and food commodity inflation, even as prospects for de-escalation improve.

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Speakers

Stephen Hare

Stephen is part of the Industry team where he is responsible for the extraction sector forecasts and contributes to the monthly commodity price forecasts for iron and steel. Stephen joined Oxford Economics in January 2018 after completing his MSc in finance and econometrics at Queen Marys University of London.

Lead Economist

Kiran Ahmed

Kiran has worked at Oxford Economics for over 15 years. During her time at the company, she has had responsibility for forecasting commodity prices, including energy and metals and is currently working on developing the Commodity Service’s agricultural commodity offering. In addition, she has had responsibility for forecasting several different industrial sectors including metals and engineering for the Industry Service and is now responsible for forecasting the agriculture sector. Kiran has led several consultancy projects in the Industry Team while at Oxford Economics and continues to manage some of the projects in capital goods sector.

Prior to working at Oxford Economics, Kiran worked at CRU, a metals consultancy, where she contributed to the aluminium demand analysis. Kiran holds an MSc in Economics from Nottingham University and a BA (Hons) from Kingston University.

Lead Economist

Jack Reid

Jack is an economist in the Scenarios and Macro Modelling team where is responsible for natural gas forecasts, and contributes to the modelling of the energy sector. Jack joined Oxford Economics in January 2024 after completing his Master of Economics at The University of Sydney.

Graduate Economist - Scenarios and Macro Modelling

Sebastien Tillett

Sebastien joined Oxford Economics in 2023 as a graduate working across freight and transport advisory consulting. His main area of experience is in providing data analysis on projects within the maritime/trade and transport industries.

Prior to working at Oxford Economics, Sebastien had technology roles at AMP and Macquarie Bank before completing a Master of Economics.

Economist

Bridget Payne

Bridget is Head of Energy Forecasting. She leads the production of oil, gas, coal, and refined fuel forecasts for our Commodities Service and shapes Oxford Economics’ view on energy markets through analysis of key trends and developments.

Bridget joined Oxford Economics from the energy consultancy Flow&Ebb, where she supported corporate and industrial users with energy hedging, procurement, investment, and strategy. Prior to that, she worked in the Victoria State Government Department of Treasury and Finance, focusing on energy and climate policy.

She holds a Master of Development Economics from Victoria University of Wellington and a Bachelor of Business (Economics) from the University of Technology, Sydney.

Head of Energy Forecasting