Research Briefing
Research Briefing Trade war scenario threatens US travel sector International travel to the US is expected to decline.
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Research Briefing
Research Briefing Trade war scenario threatens US travel sector International travel to the US is expected to decline.
Research Briefing
We will revise the forecast for federal employment significantly lower this year, and in subsequent years, because of the announced...
Research Briefing
Prime Minister Sir Kier Starmer has pledged to increase the UK's defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, following...
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven...
Research Briefing
After a surge of activity during the Covid-19 years, growth in life science-related industries has slowed considerably and we expect...
Research Briefing
For many households, tax refunds represent the biggest cash-flow event of the year. It's early, but we think this will...
Research Briefing
The new US tariffs add an additional layer of drag on Asian manufacturing activities. India will be one of the...
Research Briefing
We think the immediate tariffs on China will have spillovers to some other Asian economies, while the threat of reciprocal...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Research Briefing
The risks to our participation rate forecast are numerous and largely weighted to the downside, implying unemployment could fall further.
Research Briefing
Despite the recent uptick in wholesale electricity prices, we expect to see industrial electricity prices in Europe fall slightly through...
Rising wage costs have been increasingly squeezing the already low profitability of small firms in Japan, thereby raising concerns about...
Research Briefing
US President Donald Trump has announced or threatened a range of fresh tariffs in recent weeks. While we expect the...
Research Briefing
European pharmaceuticals, machinery, and high-tech goods are heavily exported to the US, making them vulnerable to across-the-board US tariffs. However,...
Research Briefing
The impact of AI is highly visible in some segments of the economy but barely seen in others, leaving the...
Research Briefing
The April increase in employers' national insurance contributions will weaken the UK labour market, increasing unemployment. Sectors with the greatest...
Research Briefing
The United States has introduced an additional 10% levy on Chinese imports as part of the opening round of the...
Research Briefing
We've lowered our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Australia by 0.1ppt to 1.9% due to a weaker outlook for near-term...
Research Briefing
We have revised our Eurozone labour market forecasts to incorporate the impact of US tariffs, and now expect employment growth to come to a near standstill this year. Although risks to the labour market are tilted to...