Research Briefing
We assess the implications and risks for our commodity price forecasts against the backdrop of a 'fragile' ceasefire in the...
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Research Briefing
We assess the implications and risks for our commodity price forecasts against the backdrop of a 'fragile' ceasefire in the...
Research Briefing
If there’s one thing more damaging than tariffs themselves, it’s the sharp rise in trade policy uncertainty.
Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
Research Briefing
The small, open economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are struggling against three external headwinds simultaneously: stuttering German industry,...
Research Briefing
The impact of global tariffs, a high degree of policy uncertainty, and higher for longer interest rates are expected to...
Research Briefing
We've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Australia by 0.2ppts to 2.1%. Growth in 2024 was in line with...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate at 0.50% at Wednesday's meeting, as expected. Despite a marginally higher...
Research Briefing
We have revised our CPI forecast upwards for this year and next, due to more persistent supply side-driven food inflation,...
Research Briefing
Related Services TradePrism TradePrism delivers advanced insights into global trade dynamics, helping policy leaders, supply chain strategists, and risk managers...
Research Briefing
Eurozone growth in 2025 will rely on consumers. There were positive signs in H2 last year, with consumers starting to...
Research Briefing
The slew of tariff proposals coming out of the US has added much uncertainty to the highly export-reliant Singapore economy....
Research Briefing
Tariff threats and heightened trade policy uncertainty began causing stress in supply chains.
Research Briefing
Despite weaker-than-expected gains in headline consumer and producer prices in February, the source data that feed into the PCE deflator...
Research Briefing
House prices across Europe have soared over the past decade, especially in cities. During this time, incomes in Europe have...
Research Briefing
Cuts to the Federal government workforce, which we estimate to be 200,000 in 2025, will have a modest impact nationally,...
Research Briefing
We've lowered our GDP growth forecast for the US, Canada and Mexico, reflecting our assumption of more aggressive US tariff...
Research Briefing
Tariffs typically result in a one-off rise in the level of prices.
Research Briefing
Trade tensions between the EU and the US are escalating. Aggressive protectionist policies have been a key instrument for Trump...
Research Briefing
Tariffs don't have to be imposed to wreak economic harm – threats are enough. So the recent flurry of announcements...
New geopolitical realities have forced the likely next German coalition of the CDU and SPD into agreeing to a massive...