Research Briefing
The global investment growth trend is still weak, with G7 capital spending expected to rise just 2% this year.
Monetary policy
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Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve is considering a balance sheet reduction, facing challenges that could impact financial stability and funding markets.
Research Briefing
The US-Israel war with Iran reinforces a long-standing narrative but rewrites a few key chapters.
Research Briefing
Yields may rise as inflation and geopolitical tensions persist, despite any short-term relief
Research Briefing
Energy-driven supply shocks push Eurozone inflation higher, prompting expected ECB rate hikes despite weak demand.
The BoJ is edging toward another rate hike—but timing is everything. Inflation is rising, the yen is weakening, and global...
Research Briefing
Warsh is in—but the real story is what comes next. Inflation is sticky, consumers are stretched, and the Fed may...
Consulting Report
Consulting Report The Cost of Uncertainty: Quantifying the impact of policy volatility on investment in the global economy You might...
Research Briefing
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased oil market fears, pushing crude prices lower and offering potential relief...
Research Briefing
Refined fuel shortages are tightening Asia’s transport capacity, raising costs, and disrupting supply chains—from aviation to manufacturing. With inflation pressures...
Research Briefing
Rising energy prices are set to lift US PCE inflation to its highest level since 2023, with further pressure expected...
Research Briefing
Oil prices are pulling back, but inflation pressures and weakening demand are starting to build. Is this just temporary relief,...
Still sluggish domestic demand, the recently-concluded ‘Two Sessions’, and an ongoing Middle Eastern conflict all point to the need for...
Research Briefing
Energy prices are pushing inflation higher in the UK and Eurozone, undermining the idea that central banks can simply look...
Research Briefing
Our January PCE nowcast points to a slightly stronger monthly gain than seen in the CPI report, with headline PCE...
Research Briefing
RESEARCH BRIEFING Stage set for strong Q4 GDP print despite slowdown in trade in Australia Government spending drives Q4 growth...
Research Briefing
We've raised our terminal rate assumption for the Bank of Japan to 1.5% from 1% in February. This reflects changes...
Research Briefing
While Kevin Warsh, the Trump administration's nominee for Federal Reserve chair, was a more hawkish member of the Federal Open...
Research Briefing
While we mostly agree with Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's argument that the economy is in a supply-side expansion...
Research Briefing
In our upcoming February forecast update, we'll stick to our expectation of a primary fiscal deficit of 2%-3% of GDP...
