Demographic trends imply emerging market savings rates are approaching multi-decade peaks and will only fall marginally over the next few decades.
Topic: Demographics
Navigate long-term uncertainty and assess key risks shaping the business environment.
Oxford Economics conducted a study exploring the role of in-app fare negotiation in on-demand mobility, drawing on survey evidence from riders and drivers across seven emerging markets. The research examines how fare negotiation affects price discovery, efficiency and accessibility in on-demand transport.
The Canadian economy avoided a technical recession in 2025 and only meagre advances are likely well into early 2026. Game-changing policy shifts are prompting structural adjustments in Canada’s economy.
We expect an above-consensus increase in US consumer spending growth next year, but the state of the consumer is increasingly bifurcated.
This study, commissioned by the Motion Picture Association (MPA), examines the five-episode Polish Netflix original limited series “Heweliusz” and analyzes its total economic impact in Poland during the 2024–2025 production period. The study also considers the broader effects of the series on the Polish economy.
Europe’s cities are at a critical point, with population stagnation, weakened industrial competitiveness, and acute housing crises weighing heavily on economic prospects. The EU’s Agenda for Cities update and first-ever Housing Affordability Plan are therefore arriving at a crucial moment, offering much-needed guidance for cities navigating these challenges.
Black and Hispanic households have experienced more inflation than other groups since the reopening of the economy from the pandemic lockdowns. Although there’ve been many phases of high inflation, some have disproportionately hurt these minority groups, such as the jump in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the ensuing surge in rental inflation further setting them back.
A household needed to earn an annual income of $110,100 to afford a single-family home and pay both property taxes and home insurance costs in Q3 2025, down 2.3% from the peak Q1 2025 ($112,700) but nearly twice that of Q3 2020.
Unemployment is rising and wage growth is declining for young adults, which could have a long-term scarring impact. Weak labor market prospects and rising housing costs are causing more young adults to live with their parents.
Our Global Rebalance scenario explores a gradual movement from a unipolar, dollar-based system to one with two centres of economic and financial gravity – the US and China – driven by weaker US policy credibility and Chinese structural reforms.
We expect this holiday shopping season to be the strongest in four years, but it will be disproportionately driven by older, wealthier households.
The UK’s productivity performance has been lacklustre since the 2008 global financial crisis—both historically and relative to its international peers.
The Ministry of Housing, Communities & Local Government has updated the English indices of deprivation, providing a granular view of the geography of deprivation.
With stock markets sitting at or near all-time highs, there is renewed attention on the consumption effects from fluctuations in household wealth. Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, significant gains in net wealth have driven almost a third of the increase in consumer spending. Despite an unfavorable backdrop, consumer spending will grow at a decent pace this year, largely thanks to the stock market rally that started in April.
Strong economic fundamentals support the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) consumer sector, likely leading to a structural outperformance over its advanced economy peers for decades.
Despite revising our labour supply projections up, the Eurozone’s rapidly ageing population will lead to a 6% decline in potential workers by 2050 from a peak in 2029. This bleak long-run outlook for labour supply will help drag Eurozone potential growth below 1% per annum by the mid-2030s.
Texas has emerged as the powerhouse of America’s economic southward shift, leading in job creation and high-value industries from tech to finance. With its growth outpacing the national average, will Texas continue to anchor the next phase of US expansion?
We believe the huge increase in foreign workers in Japan will prove unsustainable, despite the considerable labour shortages across various sectors, caused by unfavourable demographics. As shown by the far right’s progress at the recent election, Japan isn’t ready to drastically transform policy and society to accommodate large numbers of foreign workers as full citizens, rather than as ‘guest workers’.
Over the past decade, the UK population has continued to grow steadily, recording stronger growth rates than many European peer nations. This has largely been driven by the continued growth in international migration.
