To understand the potential ramifications of changes in the economic relationship between the US and Canada, the Canadian American Business Council (CABC) commissioned Oxford Economics to undertake a study which takes stock of the US-Canada commercial relationship and assesses the likely economic consequences of three distinct potential outcomes of USMCA negotiations. The study utilizes a sophisticated, multi-model approach to quantify the risks of a potential dissolution of USMCA against the upside of a successful renegotiation of the agreement, both measured against a status quo scenario anchored to the bilateral tariff regime in effect in mid-2026, with impacts assessed across industries and down to the state and province levels.
