Generative AI could reshape the global economy through 2030 and beyond, but the scale of its impact remains highly uncertain. Oxford Economics uses three model “levers” — AI Exposure, AI Adoption and labour substitution — within its Global Economic Model to map out AI Breakthrough, AI Disruption and AI Disappointment scenarios, each with distinct implications for GDP growth, employment and productivity.
Explore the complex economic impact of AI on growth, labour productivity, and employment, with insights on varying scenarios.
From ICAAP, ILAAP and ORSA to IFRS 9 and CECL, our solutions help you assess risk, meet regulatory requirements and build resilience.
Climate and nature risks are becoming core to EU stress testing requirements, with regulators pushing banks beyond isolated exercises toward integrated, decision-ready frameworks. This article breaks down five key developments — from connecting macro scenarios to real business impacts, to preparing for the EBA’s 2027 stress test — shaping how financial institutions build resilience across Europe.
Oxford Economics Australia helped quantify how tariffs could affect Ontario municipal capital expenditure through bespoke economic modelling and scenario analysis. The report shows where infrastructure cost risk is highest and gives investors, operators, and policymakers a clearer view of tariff exposure.
Tensions in Iran threaten global energy security through the risk of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy trade route.
Navigate long-term uncertainty and assess key risks shaping the business environment.
Research Briefing US Inbound Travel Arrivals: 2025 Halfway Mark The forecasted 8.2% decline in annual international arrivals solidifies as headwinds persist.
Oxford Economics Australia delivered the foundational labour market modelling for BuildSkills Australia’s 2024 Workforce Plan, quantifying future workforce demand across the construction, property, and water sectors.
Consulting Report Forecasting the Growth of Millennial Wealth in the US You might be interested in
We think Australia’s growth prospects are set to improve in 2025. Lower inflation will be supportive of the growth outlook, although there is still only limited scope for policy easing next year.
The results of the US election have prompted us to adopt our ‘limited Trump’ scenario as our baseline view for now. Broadly speaking, the outlook for 2025 is little changed.
The Australian Government’s review of Australia’s it’s higher education system could not have come at a more opportune time. Lacklustre productivity growth, tight labour market conditions and skills shortages are major concerns for Australian businesses right now and are also factors increasing demands on Australia’s tertiary education system.
