Research Briefing
On March 4, President Trump placed 25% blanket tariffs on Canada and Mexico, except Canadian energy products that would be...
Trade
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Research Briefing
The nominal goods trade deficit was at its widest in January, signaling businesses had front-loaded goods shipments ahead of new...
Blog
It was fantastic to welcome our esteemed clients and guests to our economic forecasting conference in Sydney, Melbourne and online.
Research Briefing
First-quarter GDP is tracking weakly at 1% annualized, but we think a lot of the swings in the data are...
Research Briefing
Blanket 10% tariffs on EU exports to the US, now part of our baseline, will have a significant but uneven...
Research Briefing
President Trump launched the first salvo in what will like turn into another global trade war. A 10% additional tariff...
Research Briefing
President Donald Trump signed a slew of executive orders related to immigration, trade, and the federal government workplace, but these...
The solid rise in the trade balance in November was largely driven by stronger export values.
Research Briefing
Donald Trump's tariff threats for day one of his new presidency would have a heavy impact on the Mexican economy...
Research Briefing
The aggregate economic impact of the recently finalised EU-Mercosur trade pact will be modest if it gets final approval.
Research Briefing
We expect Trump's tariffs will reduce global trade values by more than 7% by 2030 compared to our pre-election forecasts.
Research Briefing
Blanket 25% tariffs on Canada threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump earlier this week would push Canada into a recession...
Research Briefing
Our analysis suggests that while a Harris presidency, assuming Democratic control of Congress, would have a minor positive impact on...
Research Briefing
We remain concerned about the potential fallout in Latin America from a second Trump presidency in areas other than a...
It was fantastic to welcome our esteemed clients and guests to our economic forecasting conference in Sydney, Melbourne and online.
Research Briefing
We estimate that a 1ppt rise in US tariffs cuts imports from China by 2.5% in the long term.
Research Briefing
Our tool suggests India is a strong contender. Holding India back is its low productivity per worker and poor education...
Research Briefing
Announced tariff increases by the US and EU on made-in-China EVs, if implemented, will increase EV prices and reduce demand....
Research Briefing
Contingency planning for possible disruptions caused by rising geopolitical tensions is becoming an increasingly important factor in business strategy planning....
Research Briefing
We subjectively assign a greater probability of a divided government after the 2024 elections rather than one that is fully...
