Research Briefing
Our internal recession models support our opinion that a looming downturn is unlikely, despite rising recession risks.
Recession Monitor
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Research Briefing
A number of recession warnings were flashing yellow and red last year, but the economy didn't falter and entered the...
Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models are approaching their zero bound and are at their lowest levels in more than two...
Research Briefing
Recession alarm bells should sound a bit muted with an encouraging employment report, solid gains in retail sales, and a...
Research Briefing
The economy underwhelmed in the first half of the year while it transitioned to a more sustainable pace of growth,...
Research Briefing
The economy slowed following the strong gains in the second half of last year, as it settled into a more...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator confirms the economy has improved after getting off to a slow start in Q1. We expect...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator shows the economy hit a rough patch at the start of the year but there is...
Research Briefing
Our business cycle indicator implies that the economy is losing momentum, but there are some caveats. Some of the data...
Research Briefing
The odds of a recession have declined over the past several months because of a strong labor market, a deceleration...
Research Briefing
The economy is weakening, but the incoming data are consistent with a slowdown rather than a technical recession.
Research Briefing
In our latest forecast, we removed the mild recession from our baseline and now anticipate a prolonged period of below-trend...
