The supply-shocks era (2020-23) represented the first time in a generation where inflation significantly eroded the real value of global...
Public debt
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Research Briefing
We expect fiscal consolidation to generally continue in Asia, except in mainland China and Taiwan. In those economies, we anticipate looser fiscal policy this year and very slow normalisation...
Research Briefing
We expect El Salvador to avoid default in 2023, but unsustainable public debt and dangerously low reserves will trigger restructuring...
Research Briefing
Egyptian authorities met with IMF staff on the sidelines of the IMF and the World Bank annual meetings held in...
Research Briefing
The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have...
Research Briefing
Ecuador is no longer on track towards meeting the criteria imposed on it by the IMF to keep its US$6.4bn...
Research Briefing
Odds of a downturn in Canada have just crossed a tipping point and we now expect a moderate recession starting...
Research Briefing
The dominance of international events has shifted attention away from the medium-term economic programmes of the candidates in France's crowded...
Research Briefing
The ECB's unexpectedly hawkish shift tone prompted a sizeable market reaction, with Italian 10-year bond yields rising 55bps, to 1.95%....
Research Briefing
The SPD, FDP and Green party have struck a deal to form the next German government, which should be in...
The legacy of the massive fiscal response to the pandemic is ballooning government debt. From 2019 to today, average government...
Research Briefing
Necessity and opportunity allowed African issuers to expand their public debt positions markedly since the Covid-19 pandemic hit. The sharp...
Research Briefing
Recent political shifts have increased the odds of Germany loosening its tight national fiscal rules after the September elections, which...
