Research Briefing | Apr 7, 2022

How the Ukraine war could decide the next French president

How the Ukraine war could decide the next French presidentThe dominance of international events has shifted attention away from the medium-term economic programmes of the candidates in France’s crowded presidential election. According to our analysis, only three candidates have tabled programmes that we estimate would lower the public deficit – and only slightly. We also think their revenue expectations are overoptimistic.

What you will learn:

  • Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the economic consequences are dominating the campaign.
  • Sanctions on Russia have pushed energy prices up, which means inflation is likely to peak in 2022 at the highest level since the 1980s.
  • Although President Emmanuel Macron is still the favourite, candidates proposing measures to support household incomes have recently gained in opinion polls at his expense.

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