How the Ukraine war could decide the next French president

The dominance of international events has shifted attention away from the medium-term economic programmes of the candidates in France’s crowded presidential election. According to our analysis, only three candidates have tabled programmes that we estimate would lower the public deficit – and only slightly. We also think their revenue expectations are overoptimistic.

What you will learn:

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the economic consequences are dominating the campaign.
• Sanctions on Russia have pushed energy prices up, which means inflation is likely to peak in 2022 at the highest level since the 1980s.
• Although President Emmanuel Macron is still the favourite, candidates proposing measures to support household incomes have recently gained in opinion polls at his expense.