We’ve raised our terminal rate assumption for the Bank of Japan to 1.5% from 1% in February. This reflects changes in our estimate for Japan’s neutral interest rate, r* – the equilibrium level at which the policy rate should eventually settle – resulting from recent revisions to GDP, a new fiscal policy outlook, and rising inflation expectations.
After years of volatility, commodity markets face renewed macroeconomic headwinds as slowing global growth and trade disruptions hit demand. Could 2026 mark the start of a deeper correction—or a turning point for recovery?
It was fantastic to welcome our esteemed clients and guests to our economic forecasting conference in Sydney, Melbourne and online.
The solid rise in the trade balance in November was largely driven by stronger export values.
The rise in the unemployment rate in December does little to change the fact that the labour market is incredibly tight.
Senior Editor Teri Robinson spoke with Chief US Economist Ryan Sweet about the what the second Trump administration will mean for cybersecurity, including the shifting responsibilities of defenders the safety of critical infrastructure, and the rise of AI.
CPI inflation was weak once again in Q4, with the headline measure increasing by just 0.2% q/q. Inflation has now slowed to 2.4% y/y. The trimmed-mean measure increased by 0.5% q/q in Q4, which is an encouraging step down.
The aggregate economic impact of the recently finalised EU-Mercosur trade pact will be modest if it gets final approval.
October was another solid month for retail sales, with turnover increasing 0.6% m/m. Sales growth was driven by household goods in October, with retailers reporting a strong response to discounting activity.
There were no surprises from the RBA at the November meeting, with the board keeping rates on hold at 4.35%.
Vacancy in the Melbourne CBD continued to track higher during H1 2024, increasing to 18.0%, reflecting the
persistent contraction in office demand
Australia’s GDP growth was broadly in line with our expectations in Q2 at a meagre 0.2% q/q. The
economy is lacking a clear engine of growth and the private sector is clearly struggling against
restrictive policy settings.
Stress among home loan borrowers has risen due to higher interest rates, broad cost-of-living pressures, and the gradual slackening of the labour market.
It was fantastic to welcome our esteemed clients and guests to our economic forecasting conference in Sydney, Melbourne and online.
Employment growth has outstripped economic activity over the past 18 months to an unsustainable extent. Accordingly, the Australian economy has been facing a big question of when the labour market will slacken further, reflective of the substantial and well entrenched slowdown in the real economy.
Market conditions for the retirement living sector in Australia are robust, with occupancy rates having surged to 95% in 2023 – near the effective rate of full occupancy. This reflects a mix of strong demand drivers and lagging supply.
Higher interest rates have pushed up the risk premium required from prime commercial property. Yields have softened as interest rates and bond yields moved higher, resulting in falling capital values.
Contingency planning for possible disruptions caused by rising geopolitical tensions is becoming an increasingly important factor in business strategy planning. To this end, we have developed a globally consistent framework showing cross-country GDP vulnerabilities to an escalation in China-Taiwan tensions, focused on disruption to the global semiconductor supply chain.
Oxford Economics Australia’s report provides the results of our analysis of TikTok’s economic contribution to the Australian economy.
The conversion of underutilised low-grade office stock to residential dwellings is pushed as a carbon effective path to boosted housing supply and a more balanced office market. While a winwin in concept, in practice development potential is significantly limited.
