Research Briefing
We expect global inflation to return to pre-crisis levels faster than it took to reach its peak. While any number...
Inflation
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 686 results
Research Briefing
Cost and availability of financing are critical to the health of construction markets. With interest rates at historically low levels...
Research Briefing
The failure of two US banks caught financial markets by surprise but we believe the macroeconomic implications are minor and...
Research Briefing
The failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank have not changed our baseline forecasts for GDP growth, inflation, or...
Research Briefing
Our modelling finds few scenarios in which corporate credit offers a compelling return. Stickier inflation or a sharp sell-off in...
Research Briefing
Japan's structural labour shortage has deepened. While it may not result in a wage-inflation spiral now, labour scarcity will put...
Aside from Malaysia's BNM meeting and a host of CPI data this week, the closely-watched "Two Sessions" political event will be held in China, trade data from China...
Research Briefing
We've created a real-time indicator – the US Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) – to assess the health of economic activity....
Research Briefing
The incoming data likely warrant some adjustments to the baseline forecast, particularly for the path of the target range for...
Research Briefing
A cautious 2023 budget amid the need to stabilize government finances post pandemic means that fiscal policy won't be able...
Research Briefing
After a difficult 2022 for UK households, we expect real income to fall 1.2% in 2023 due to a range...
Research Briefing
Our indicators suggest global economic sentiment is improving despite the impact of higher interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the squeeze...
Research Briefing
The government's announcement that the country's oil output will be reduced by 0.5 mn b/d in March is not a...
Research Briefing
Supply chain stress fell at the beginning of the year and further easing is likely due to weaker domestic and...
Research Briefing
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy...
Research Briefing
France has dodged soaring price pressures better than its eurozone peers, but we think its inflation will fall more slowly.
Research Briefing
In this new quarterly Research Briefing series, we answer the top five questions we've recently received from clients.
Research Briefing
Long-term forward rates have risen markedly in the US, eurozone, and UK over the past year, and now stand well...
Our baseline economic outlook now assumes a mild US recession beginning in the second quarter of 2023. Despite recent moderation,...
We think rapidly deteriorating demand and easing commodity prices will prompt the Czech National Bank (CNB) to start cutting rates at the end of Q2.
