he Q4 update of our IFRS9 and CECL scenarios services paints a more pessimistic view of the balance of risks...
Economic risk
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Research Briefing
Oxford Economics, Control Risks and Seerist have joined forces to develop a risk assessment framework. Underpinning our flagship product, Economic...
Around the world, efforts are being made to slow and eventually halt the process of climate change and reduce the...
Quantifying the economic impact of climate change becomes crucial, particularly in a rapidly warming planet.
Research Briefing
The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a recession next year because the headwinds are about to intensify. We...
Research Briefing
Swings in oil prices pack less of an economic punch than in the past but sudden increases can still be...
Research Briefing
Surging inflation has dampened the outlook for consumer spending, which will contribute to a global recession over the coming months.
Research Briefing
Pioneering research has used panel econometric techniques to estimate the economic impact of average temperatures. Building on that approach, we...
Research Briefing
It's been a horrible period for EM portfolio debt flows. The better news is that broader capital flows to EMs...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast is now for world trade in goods to decline by 0.2% in 2023, a considerable downgrade from...
Research Briefing
The global economic outlook has deteriorated, with downside risks threatening global real estate.
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
After nine months of devastating war, we expect Ukraine's economic contraction to reach 31% in 2022. Prompt monetary and fiscal policy responses and $23bn of external financing have prevented a much deeper contraction.
Research Briefing
Russia’s shutdown of natural gas flows to Europe has resulted in skyrocketing regional prices. This has contributed to a significant...
After a tighter-than-expected runoff on October 30, Lula da Silva (PT) was elected president of Brazil for a third time....
Research Briefing
Central banks and many other forecasters may be underestimating the risk of persistently high inflation. While our view is that...
Research Briefing
Egyptian authorities met with IMF staff on the sidelines of the IMF and the World Bank annual meetings held in...
Research Briefing
With Liz Truss's agenda of tax cuts and supply-side reforms dead before it had even begun, her resignation as UK...
Research Briefing
We do not believe the moderate recession forecast this winter and the deepening housing correction completely undermines the medium-term case...
Research Briefing
African purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings for Q3 2022 reflect economic weakness on the continent and we expect GDP data...
