Research Briefing | Oct 31, 2022

Lula wins the Brazilian presidency promising to end political polarization

After a tighter-than-expected runoff on October 30, Lula da Silva (PT) was elected president of Brazil for a third time. He defeated the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (PT) by just two million votes.

What you will learn:

  • In a conciliatory first speech as president-elect, Lula pledged to form a wide, pro-democracy coalition and to govern for those who didn’t vote for him as well as for his core electoral base.
  • Lula’s speech didn’t reveal much about his future economic policy, but he stated three times that salaries will always increase above inflation during his mandate, which we think is a threat to inflation and to fiscal consolidation. He also mentioned his desire to boost an affordable housing program (MCMV), confirming our view that he intends to intervene more actively in public banks.
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