Covid Lockdown
Data for Q3 on the volume of China’s imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China’s demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.
The impact of the lockdowns and Covid-19-related restrictions in China were severe in the second quarter of 2022. We have therefore revised down our expectations for growth in 2022 for most of China’s major cities—although we have revised Shanghai and Beijing up slightly. Changsha is forecast to be the best performing major city in 2022.