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We expect Asian currencies to stabilise, if not strengthen, versus the US dollar in 2023, as the Fed pauses hiking rates in Q1, China reopens in H2, and real yields retrace as inflation moderates.

Many cities in the world’s advanced economies will enter recession in 2023, with soaring inflation and tightening monetary and fiscal policy driving down demand. In contrast, the majority of cities in emerging economies will still enjoy robust economic growth.

In partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association this latest edition of our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook highlights that across most markets, fundamental demand conditions for valve and actuator consumption weakened considerably.

The state of the market for valves and actuators is often seen as a bellwether for the state of the industrial economy. Against that backdrop our latest forecasts contain some worrying signals.

Data for Q3 on the volume of China’s imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level. Rather than an indication that China’s demand has peaked, this may be a sign that China is preparing for the Russian oil price cap recently agreed by G7 by shifting some of its purchases to the grey market.

The impact of the lockdowns and Covid-19-related restrictions in China were severe in the second quarter of 2022. We have therefore revised down our expectations for growth in 2022 for most of China’s major cities—although we have revised Shanghai and Beijing up slightly. Changsha is forecast to be the best performing major city in 2022.