OE Logo
    Request a trial

      Coronavirus Watch

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

      Global Coronavirus Watch: New hurdles for supply chains

      After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jan 20, 2022

      Global Coronavirus Watch: New hurdles for supply chains

      After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Nov 16, 2021

      Global Coronavirus Watch: Q3’s GDP softness may be a blip

      After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Nov 16, 2021

      Global Coronavirus Watch: Q3’s GDP softness may be a blip

      After expanding strongly in Q2, global GDP growth slowed in Q3 in response to the Delta disruption and ongoing supply chain problems.

      Read more

      We have cut our global GDP growth forecasts again, and now have reduced our 2021 estimate by a total of 0.7pp since June in response to the spread of Delta, supply-chain disruption, and higher inflation.

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Sep 23, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Inflation pressures bubble up

      The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Sep 23, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Inflation pressures bubble up

      The recent broad-based rises in core inflation across a range of advanced economies has reopened the debate as to whether this year’s rise in inflation really is a purely transitory phenomenon.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

      Global Coronavirus Watch: Stresses in supply chains build

      Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing, supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term. Consequently, we’ve pushed back our expected timing of the revival in the industrial sector to mid-2022 and, due to this shift, will lower our global GDP forecasts.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Sep 7, 2021

      Global Coronavirus Watch: Stresses in supply chains build

      Delta remains the primary threat to the recovery, but we also think that the drag from continuing, supply-chain disruption will be critical in the near term. Consequently, we’ve pushed back our expected timing of the revival in the industrial sector to mid-2022 and, due to this shift, will lower our global GDP forecasts.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

      US | Pandemic unemployment benefits ending for millions

      More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 31, 2021

      US | Pandemic unemployment benefits ending for millions

      More than 11 million individuals will lose access to emergency unemployment benefits at the end of next week creating a headwind for personal income and consumer spending.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 24, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Transitioning to 2022

      We have cut our near-term growth forecasts, in part due to the spread of Delta, and are likely to fine-tune them further in September. But we don’t see Delta as a cause for major panic. Rather than pushing economies back into recession, the most likely outcome is that it pushes back the recovery in the shorter term.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 24, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Transitioning to 2022

      We have cut our near-term growth forecasts, in part due to the spread of Delta, and are likely to fine-tune them further in September. But we don’t see Delta as a cause for major panic. Rather than pushing economies back into recession, the most likely outcome is that it pushes back the recovery in the shorter term.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 10, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks versus inflation risks

      We estimate world GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the strength and breadth of the recovery.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 10, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks versus inflation risks

      We estimate world GDP surpassed pre-pandemic levels in Q2. But in recent weeks surging cases of the Delta variant have added to concerns over the strength and breadth of the recovery.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2021

      US | Positioning for rate normalisation

      We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that capitalise on future macro trends driven by mid-cycle dynamics.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Aug 4, 2021

      US | Positioning for rate normalisation

      We see the strong pull back in long-term US yields since the peak of the reflation trade this year as an opportunity to enter new positions that capitalise on future macro trends driven by mid-cycle dynamics.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta dilemmas

      The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will lead to a bumpier and more uncertain path for the global recovery, but for now we think it only warrants only a small adjustment to our baseline GDP forecasts – the downside risks will be explored in a forthcoming scenario within our Global Scenarios Service.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta dilemmas

      The spread of the Delta coronavirus variant appears to have usurped inflation as the key concern. The Delta strain will lead to a bumpier and more uncertain path for the global recovery, but for now we think it only warrants only a small adjustment to our baseline GDP forecasts – the downside risks will be explored in a forthcoming scenario within our Global Scenarios Service.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

      US | Where are we in the business cycle?

      Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has legs to run in spite of being past peak growth and policy accommodation. This provides ongoing solid underpinning for corporate profits, albeit with more subdued equity market returns. It also signals we have not reached the peak in long-term rates. Still, there are downside risks on the horizon, including the Delta variant.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

      US | Where are we in the business cycle?

      Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle. We believe the expansion has legs to run in spite of being past peak growth and policy accommodation. This provides ongoing solid underpinning for corporate profits, albeit with more subdued equity market returns. It also signals we have not reached the peak in long-term rates. Still, there are downside risks on the horizon, including the Delta variant.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

      Global | The global housing boom in historical perspective

      Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable variation between economies. This boom, while not as pronounced as the one that preceded the global financial crisis, is still one of the biggest since 1900.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 27, 2021

      Global | The global housing boom in historical perspective

      Our estimates suggest that house prices in advanced economies may be around 10% overvalued versus long-term trends, albeit with considerable variation between economies. This boom, while not as pronounced as the one that preceded the global financial crisis, is still one of the biggest since 1900.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 13, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount

      Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 13, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Delta risks mount

      Concerns within markets about the impact of the Delta variant on the economy is in our view warranted. We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 13, 2021

      Global | The slowdown in global liquidity is no cause for alarm

      Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched from different sides, bringing global liquidity dynamics slowly back to pre-crisis levels. Liquidity may still be abundant, but it’s no longer growing and in some major economies is even beginning to retreat.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jul 13, 2021

      Global | The slowdown in global liquidity is no cause for alarm

      Although none of the big four central banks have started tapering their QE programmes yet, monetary aggregates are being pinched from different sides, bringing global liquidity dynamics slowly back to pre-crisis levels. Liquidity may still be abundant, but it’s no longer growing and in some major economies is even beginning to retreat.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 29, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Case rates fall globally

      New global cases of Covid-19 have fallen below the March lows and in many advanced economies, rapid vaccination programmes have allowed economies to begin to reopen without triggering a surge in Covid cases.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 29, 2021

      Global | Coronavirus Watch: Case rates fall globally

      New global cases of Covid-19 have fallen below the March lows and in many advanced economies, rapid vaccination programmes have allowed economies to begin to reopen without triggering a surge in Covid cases.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

      Global | Why a new inflation era, not a regime shift, is likely

      A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the economy and financial markets. But in our view, if the pandemic triggers lasting effects on the inflation-generation process, a more plausible outcome is a new era of slightly higher inflation within the current central bank inflation targeting regime.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

      Global | Why a new inflation era, not a regime shift, is likely

      A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be ignored due to its impact on the economy and financial markets. But in our view, if the pandemic triggers lasting effects on the inflation-generation process, a more plausible outcome is a new era of slightly higher inflation within the current central bank inflation targeting regime.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

      Global | Holding on to our core convictions

      Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key asset allocation themes are still broadly intact after the Fed’s hawkish tilt last week.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 28, 2021

      Global | Holding on to our core convictions

      Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key asset allocation themes are still broadly intact after the Fed’s hawkish tilt last week.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

      Global | Turning cautious on GBP

      We believe now is the time to close out our tactical bullish GBP call, initiated in March, as the almost year-long rally in GBP looks increasingly exhausted.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

      Global | Turning cautious on GBP

      We believe now is the time to close out our tactical bullish GBP call, initiated in March, as the almost year-long rally in GBP looks increasingly exhausted.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

      UK | Inflation risks rise, but counter forces should prevail

      Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further out. But on balance we think a mix of the stronger pound, a persistent output gap, and more fundamental forces point against the UK entering a new era of sustained higher inflation.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 22, 2021

      UK | Inflation risks rise, but counter forces should prevail

      Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further out. But on balance we think a mix of the stronger pound, a persistent output gap, and more fundamental forces point against the UK entering a new era of sustained higher inflation.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 16, 2021

      Global Coronavirus Watch: Nearer-term inflation risks build

      The latest US and China inflation numbers have been shrugged off by markets despite being a bit higher than expected. While we still think that talk of a shift to a new regime is premature, the risks to the near-term inflation outlook are tilted to the upside due to pandemic-related imbalances and bottlenecks.

      Read more

      Back to Resource Hub
      Research Briefing | Jun 16, 2021

      Global Coronavirus Watch: Nearer-term inflation risks build

      The latest US and China inflation numbers have been shrugged off by markets despite being a bit higher than expected. While we still think that talk of a shift to a new regime is premature, the risks to the near-term inflation outlook are tilted to the upside due to pandemic-related imbalances and bottlenecks.

      Read more