The RBA has raised its cash rate target by a further 25 basis points, taking it to 4.1%. Although inflation has peaked, the...
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Research Briefing
Eurozone central banks became unprofitable last year, and near-term operational losses are likely to persist as banks exit the accommodative...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) left monetary policy unchanged at its first meeting under Governor Kazuo Ueda. Lower global yields...
Research Briefing
Even without rate hikes, central banks' monetary policies can effectively tighten if the nominal neutral rate falls below the policy...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan maintained its monetary policy settings at today’s (18th Jan) meeting. At the same time, the BoJ...
Research Briefing
In December, the Bank of Japan surprised markets by widening the allowance corridor for the 10-year JGB yield target, aiming to fortify its Yield Curve Control policy. The shift effectively results in a tightening of monetary policy, although we think the impact on growth will be limited.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions have deteriorated across ASEAN-5 economies to varying degrees. As well as monetary tightening, a broad depreciation of currencies...
Research Briefing
The Czech National Bank (CNB) kept the policy rate unchanged at 7% for the fourth consecutive meeting today, in line...
Research Briefing
We doubt the surprise move from the Bank of Japan to expand the tolerance range for 10-year JGB yields to...
Research Briefing
Canada has likely just entered a moderate recession that will last for much of 2023.
Research Briefing
Financial conditions in Canada have tightened significantly this year and we estimate this will shave 0.7ppts off GDP growth by...
Research Briefing
While few observers expect to see any growth surprise in Japan, some have started to wonder whether global inflation may...
Research Briefing
Over 2023, we expect global food, energy, and goods inflation to fall sharply. That said, the degree to which services...
Research Briefing
There is no perfect measure of nominal wages – each has its own blemishes. So, we've created a wage tracker...
Research Briefing
We expect the MPC to raise Bank Rate at December's meeting. But recent UK developments, including calmer financial markets, a...
Research Briefing
The outlook for Latin America changed dramatically after Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February.
Research Briefing
We anticipate most advanced economies will fall into recession in 2023 and global growth will be weaker than the consensus...
Research Briefing
After nine months of devastating war, we expect Ukraine's economic contraction to reach 31% in 2022. Prompt monetary and fiscal policy responses and $23bn of external financing have prevented a much deeper contraction.
Research Briefing
While our outlook for emerging markets (EMs) is more upbeat than for advanced economies (AEs), we have cut our 2023...
Research Briefing
Policy divergence will continue to be a key theme in global FI markets in 2023. Whereas we pencil in a...
