Research Briefing | Sep 30, 2022

Slowdown in 2023, except for Chinese cities

Growth across advanced Asia Pacific cities is slowing down in 2022’s second half, and their full-year growth rates will trend downwards in 2023. In emerging Asian cities, we expect an uptick in growth in 2022, followed by a marked weakening in 2023. These patterns largely reflect different cities’ roles in global supply chains and exposure to the world GDP slowdown, as well as the lingering effects of inflation, which has squeezed personal incomes and wealth. After a difficult 2022, we expect Chinese cities to recover in 2023.

What you will learn:

  • As is the case for several advanced Pacific Asia cities, Tokyo’s growth in 2022 will be somewhat lower than in 2021. We forecast that this year’s inflation will lead to a lagged downwards effect on consumer spending in Tokyo, and also in Seoul. Global economic weakness will particularly harm growth in export dependent cities such as Taipei and Singapore.
  • Emerging Asian cities will report faster growth in 2022 than in 2021. This is explained in part by the presence of catch-up growth in these cities, due to their late removal of Covid-19-related restrictions. For example, we expect Kuala Lumpur to have a strong year, boosted by the return of tourists. Manila will also do well.
  • But in 2023 we forecast a marked decrease in the growth rates of most emerging Asian cities. This includes Indian cities: normally among the star performers. Nevertheless, we see Southeast Asian cities in general continuing to expand at comparatively high rates.
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