Video|5 December 2024

MENA | What’s Driving MENA’s Economic Comeback?

Scott Livermore

Chief Economist & Managing Director

Turkey’s inflation fell to 47.1% in November, marking the lowest reading since mid-2023 and the 6th consecutive month of decline. However, the slowdown again disappointed against market expectations. We now anticipate inflation falling to 45.7% by the end of this year and 25% by end-2025. We expect the first rate cut from the CBRT in January.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar all saw solid improvements in business conditions in their non-oil private sectors in November. Saudi Arabia, in particular, saw a strong jump with the PMI rising to 59, its highest value since July 2023. Meanwhile, Kuwait also recorded a sharp increase to 55.9 in its PMI, while Qatar’s edged up to 52.9. We expect these three countries to see stronger growth next year and contribute to non-oil GDP expanding by 4.1% in the GCC in 2025.

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