Research Briefing | Oct 3, 2022

In Brazil Lula will have to negotiate with the centre to win the runoff

Lula da Silva (PT) won the first round of the presidential election with 48% of the votes. He is favourite to beat Jair Bolsonaro (PL), who tracked him by 6mn votes, in a runoff in four weeks.

What you will learn:

  • Lula’s PT party, however, was largely defeated in the legislative elections, meaning Lula would have to form a wide coalition with his former opposition to be able to govern with stability.
  • We think this is as close as possible to a best-case scenario for investors. Confirming this view is the 5% rally in the Brazilian real today, which is trading at a two-month high of 5.16/$.
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