Research Briefing | Feb 23, 2022

How the clash with Russia will affect Europe’s economy

The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict will hit the eurozone economy mainly via higher energy prices giving another spur to inflation, which will affect real incomes. The impact on each European economy will depend on their degree of energy dependence, direct trade, and financial links with Russia.

What you will learn:

  • We outlined a number of scenarios for an escalation in the conflict in January. The latest developments are closer to our “limited” incursion scenario.
  • For most European countries trade links are relatively minor, so with a few exceptions present only a low threat to the outlook.
  • Energy dependence is the biggest risk given Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, which in some countries represents their entire supply.
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