Saarah Ghazi 
We have revised down our global economic forecasts slightly from our snap post-election assessment. The broad picture is little changed, though: a Trump presidency should have a mild impact on topline macro variables, while the effects on individual sectors and financial markets will likely be larger.
The government’s plan to cut immigration and reduce the number of temporary residents will cause Canada’s population to decrease slightly in 2025 and 2026, after soaring by more than 2 million people over the past two years. This unprecedented immigration policy U-turn will significantly dampen economic growth over the next few years.
Fears that President-elect Donald Trump would attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell or meddle with the Federal Open Market Committee are overdone.
Our nowcast suggests October’s headline and core PCE inflation will be at their fastest monthly pace in six months and above the Fed’s most recent forecasts.
We received many questions, including during our recent webinar, about the changes to the forecast following the election along with key assumptions.
Housing affordability has dropped significantly over the last five years in every major metro as house prices soared and mortgage rates nearly doubled.
How organizations invest in technology during economic downturns can be a strong indicator of their performance during hard times and the recoveries that follow. Our study presents a significant new dataset of technology spending from publicly available industry data to extract key lessons for investment strategies across a broad spectrum of industries and product categories in advanced economies.
Our sticker-shock model of the 2024 presidential election accurately predicted the winner of nearly all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The only miss was Michigan.
Another Trump presidency will increase US fiscal stimulus, curb immigration, and lead to new tariffs on China, Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.
This study, commissioned by the Motion Picture Association (MPA), focuses on the production of the TV show “Return to Las Sabinas”, and analyzes its total economic impact in Spain in 2023 and 2024. The study also considers the wider impact on boosting the Spanish economy, such as increasing film-induced tourism.
The broad shape of the UK Budget was largely as expected, but the scale of the increases in current spending, capital spending, and taxation were larger than we had anticipated.
Inflation is the foremost issue voters are concerned about, and how it is perceived will determine the election.
Our probability of recession models showed marked improvement in September, reversing much of the recent rise. Against this backdrop, our conviction in our above-consensus GDP growth forecast for 2025 increased.
Businesses are increasingly turning to smartphones to increase their flexibility,
improve productivity, and encourage collaboration as well as remain competitive in a highly digitized and connected world. And, the way to best–and cost effectively–manage them has changed.
Our forecast is for solid growth in consumer spending over the next few years, but that is largely attributed to the resilience of high-income Americans, who account for most of consumption. By contrast, spending patterns of low-income Americans will take years to recover.
Treasuries have stumbled since the Federal Open Market Committee’s aggressive 50bp rate cut in September, but our baseline longer-term outlook remains bullish.
We still see the presidential election as a coin flip, but our updated scenarios suggest that upside risks to our baseline forecast of growth and inflation during the next presidential term are larger than we estimated in our last update.
This report estimates the national economic contribution of the US nuclear power industry, the state-level contributions, and the local contribution in counties with nuclear power plants. It also discusses nuclear power and air pollution, land use, worker safety, and waste.
Our analysis suggests that while a Harris presidency, assuming Democratic control of Congress, would have a minor positive impact on commodity prices, a Trump presidency with Republicans controlling Congress has the potential to lead to lower commodity prices.
The spotlight focused on this week’s consumer price report to see if it raises more questions about the Fed’s decision to cut rates so aggressively at its mid-September meeting.
