Anusha Suthenthiran 
Fed officials remain cautious amid rising inflation and ongoing policy uncertainty. The latest FOMC meeting highlights the challenges facing the US economy and the Fed’s careful approach to managing risks. How will these factors shape the economic outlook moving forward?
Rising tariffs, tightening credit, and slowing demand are straining the US economy especially for small businesses. Could these be early signs of a recession?
Higher unemployment among recent US graduates is driven by structural shifts in tech hiring and AI displacement. Labor force participation remains steady, and layoffs are low. While this raises Fed concerns, it does not affect the current interest rate forecast.
House Republicans have narrowly passed a reconciliation bill aligned with President Trump’s economic goals, including short-term tax cuts and cost savings.
The end of student loan forbearance is expected to have minimal effect on consumer spending, though delinquencies and credit score declines may increase, particularly in the Southeast.
The worst-case US tariff scenario sees significantly weaker growth than in our baseline, but the upsides to growth for many countries in our best-case scenario are modest at best, especially when compared with our pre-‘liberation day’ views.
Many G20 countries lack credible climate targets, undermining efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals. Countries representing 65% of global emissions have low NDC credibility, increasing the risk of a delayed and costly transition. Strengthening policies and governance is essential to restore momentum and align with emissions goals.
