With the current weakness in residential building and key commercial and industrial segments of non-residential building, growth in engineering construction has been a support for the construction industry and – given the multipliers involved – the broader economy. (Engineering construction covers transport, utilities and mining and heavy industry construction.)
Construction cost escalation has slowed from the unprecedented inflationary spike experienced by the sector in 2022 and 2023. The recent surge in construction costs was primarily driven by supply-side factors; commodity market volatility and the energy cost crisis has shifted up manufacturing and transport costs, compounded by supply-chain disruptions from the lingering impacts of the pandemic.
The conversion of underutilised low-grade office stock to residential dwellings is pushed as a carbon effective path to boosted housing supply and a more balanced office market. While a winwin in concept, in practice development potential is significantly limited.
The approvals lead for non-residential building continues to soften, with March quarter 2024 maintaining the recent downward trend in project approvals. While a normalisation beyond COVID continues to impact for some sectors, broader cyclical demand drags are becoming more obvious.
The most predictive near-term leads suggest net overseas migration (NOM) to Australia will hold near a record level for FY2024. We have conservatively revised upwards our expectation for NOM to 485,000 (+90,000).
The 2024/25 Federal Budget delivered little to shift the outlook for building construction, although there was modest movement connected to housing, tertiary education, manufacturing, and defence.
The 2024-25 federal budget affirmed the forecast changes we made in the April 2024 edition of our Engineering Construction in Australia (ECA) service. We continue to expect publicly funded activity to average $54.1bn over the five years to FY28, compared to an average of $42.1bn over the five years to FY23.
The Budget is more stimulatory than we had anticipated and presents some upside risk to an otherwise modest growth outlook in FY25. We had already bolstered our outlook a little following the redesign of the tax schedule. But the untargeted energy bill relief, expansion of rent assistance and student debt relief will all work to boost household incomes.
There has been a meaningful normalisation in Australia’s trading relationship with China over the past 12 months. The removal of tariffs on Australian wine exports to China in March was the latest in a string of decisions that represent a thawing in the relationship that soured in mid-2020.
Following a long period of stagnation, machinery & equipment investment has experienced strong growth since the start of 2021 (Chart 1). At the end of 2023, real expenditure was around 30% higher than the average over the past decade and had surpassed the previous peak recorded during the mining investment boom in the early 2010’s.
Housing affordability is an active topic in the media and is increasingly part of political discord. Key metrics are running at or near record levels in many markets for renters and mortgage-holders alike.
The unemployment rate spiked to 4.1% in January, suggesting the nascent deterioration in the labour market was gathering momentum. However, a good deal of the increase in unemployment in the month appears to be driven by changing seasonal patterns in job attachment.
The sustainability of a building is best measured through its carbon footprint. This has two main aspects – the embodied carbon from construction and the emissions from ongoing use.
The Albanese government announced a significant restructure of the personal income tax schedule. The stage three tax cuts legislated in 2019 and due to come into effect on 1 July will be overhauled in favour of a more progressive schedule.
Retail sales fell by 0.4% m/m in March following the boost to sales from the Taylor Swift tour in February. Sales are now up just 0.8% from a year ago and are broadly unchanged from September last year.
The Australian Government’s review of Australia’s it’s higher education system could not have come at a more opportune time. Lacklustre productivity growth, tight labour market conditions and skills shortages are major concerns for Australian businesses right now and are also factors increasing demands on Australia’s tertiary education system.
Our new ResRadar service helps subscribers understand the fundamentals driving residential markets and their impacts. The enhanced dashboard, timely reports, and associated databanks help make better investment decisions by examining the point in the residential market in each city and further movement, as well as identifying differences in the cycles across cities with high granularity.
This report provides the results of our economic modelling of TikTok’s economic contribution to the Australian economy, as well as the findings of survey research into TikTok’s users and Australian businesses. It looks at the real world impacts users report as well as the diversity of TikTok’s online communities.
The focus on green office buildings and sustainability is being driven by both government targets to achieve net zero and increasing corporate and investor focus on environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) considerations and compliance.
The combined capital city median all-dwelling price reached $946,000 in December quarter 2023 (+7% y/y). Resilient demand (backed by strong population growth), alongside low listing inventory helped generate competition and price growth. Momentum has been sustained into 2024, with 1.5% q/q growth estimated for Q1.
