The pipeline of build-to-rent (BTR) developments across Australia continues to swell, with our project tracking currently capturing a pipeline of circa 45,000 announced units. Around 5,900 units have broken ground in FY2023, with a further 15,000 geared to commence across FY2024 and FY2025
Australian bond yields have risen over the past 18 months, highly influenced by movements in the US, reflecting more hawkish expectations for policy rates and a higher term premium.
The Wage Price Index (WPI) increased by a sharp 1.3% q/q in Q3 – the largest quarterly growth on record – taking the y/y pace of growth to 4.0%. The jump in wage growth was partly driven by the larger the usual 5.75% increase in award wages implemented in July.
As the world heats up, so does the urgency to assess our collective progress against the goal of limiting global temperature increases to 2℃ as set out in the Paris Agreement.
The Wage Price Index (WPI) increased by a sharp 1.3% q/q in Q3 – the largest quarterly growth on record – taking the y/y pace of growth to 4.0%. The jump in wage growth was partly driven by the larger the usual 5.75% increase in award wages implemented in July.
The office sector in Australia is facing several headwinds, including reduced demand from hybrid working arrangements, slowing economic and employment growth, and rising bond rates and yields. However, it may still present an attractive cyclical investment opportunity with astute timing and management of vacancy and incentive risks.
The National Transport Commission (NTC) and the Australasian Railway Association (ARA) commissioned Oxford Economics Australia to update and extend quantitative rail workforce capability modelling last completed in 2018 and published in the ARA’s report. Fundamentally, this report
seeks to explain how skills demand will form for the rail industry over the coming decade, what will be
the key threats to workforce capability, and what industry and governments can do to respond to meet the challenges of delivering on the significant rail infrastructure investment.
The fight against inflation is well underway across the globe, with most central banks either approaching or having already reached the peak of their hiking cycle. Additionally, geo-political
tensions and the possibility of increasing restrictions on trade between global rivals remains a key downside risk to the global outlook.
There remains action on the policy front that has the potential to swing the medium to long-term outlook. In the lead-up to the 2023/24 Budget, the Federal Government released its Migration System Final Report.
We have revised up our forecast for long-term bond yields in several advanced economies – most notably in the US where yields have been lifted by 50 basis points in our forecasts.
Airbnb contributed $13.6 billion to Australia’s GDP and supported nearly 95,000 jobs in 2022, with guest spending boosting local businesses and domestic tourism, according to a new Oxford Economics report.
Global passenger vehicle production was heavily impacted by the pandemic. Major manufacturers’ forecasts for demand were lowered substantially at the onset of the pandemic, while supply chain disruptions continued to force manufacturers to scale back production.
The passing of the previously delayed Housing Australia Future Fund (HAFF) means that all the Albanese government’s announced housing policies are now in place. These policies represent a minimum funding pool of $5.5 billion stretching to the end of the decade, potentially lifting as high as $10 billion if all targets are met and excess fund returns achieved.
The shift to flexible ways of working and using office space was already underway prior to the pandemic with the advent of open plan offices, activity-based working, hot desking and co-working space.
The major CBD Australian office markets are oversupplied, with double-digit vacancy rates that should be suppressing rental growth. However, historically high incentives are boosting the financial appeal for tenants to move into better quality space when their leases expire, even as stated rents rise in many locations.
The Australian economy is slowing, with tight monetary policy and falling real incomes curbing demand and earlier supply constraints still affecting the realisation of investment projects.
Recession risk has become a hot topic in Australia with GDP growth slowing to just 0.2% q/q in Q1, and a sharp interest rate hiking cycle putting the clamps on growth in a bid to curb inflation.
Oxford Economics Australia was engaged by the Construction, Forestry, Maritime, Mining And Energy Union (CFMEU) to explore the economic case for investing in Australia’s social and affordable housing, potentially funded by revenue from a super profit tax.
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Australia’s rental market tightened considerably in 2022 with rents growing 13.4% y/y nationally. Momentum has continued in 2023, with an increased volume of tenants competing for a relatively static level of supply, contributing to historically low vacancy rates. Moreover, higher interest rates have significantly lifted the mortgage costs for landlords, who are keen to balance their cash flow through higher rental incomings.
