Mapping China’s tariff pain to relative gains for other emerging economies.
Date: 19 May
Trade wars are costly for everyone, but there are clear relative losers and winners. Tariffs will cripple US-China trade, and we expect China’s goods trade surplus to shrink but only to a still substantial 3.2% of GDP this year and remain significant in the medium term owing to trade diversification, shifts up the export value chain, and the reduced import intensity of Chinese demand. Ironically, other than China, the relative winners list includes the very countries Trump targeted most heavily in his April 2 tariff regime: Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
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Louise Loo
Lead Economist
+65 6850 0126
Louise Loo
Lead Economist
Singapore
Louise Loo joined Oxford Economics in 2022, with a focus on Greater China. Prior to OE, she was a senior economist at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. At Goldman Sachs, she was also an advisor to China MoF with regards to its sovereign credit rating. Louise is originally from Malaysia and has earned Economics and public policy degrees with Sheffield University and Columbia University.
Gabriel Sterne
Head of Global Emerging Markets
Private: Gabriel Sterne
Head of Global Emerging Markets
London, United Kingdom
Gabriel delivers macro-economic products tailored for corporates and financial markets, as head of a team that integrates EM macro and strategy views. In recent years he has published wide-ranging research including on stagflation risks, monetary policy credibility, global savings, demographics, Covid scarring, risks and resilience in emerging markets, and sovereign crisis resolution. He joined from investment banking boutique Exotix in May 2014, following 20 years of public sector experience, including at the Bank of England and International Monetary Fund.
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