Mapping China’s tariff pain to relative gains for other emerging economies.
Date: 19 May
Trade wars are costly for everyone, but there are clear relative losers and winners. Tariffs will cripple US-China trade, and we expect China’s goods trade surplus to shrink but only to a still substantial 3.2% of GDP this year and remain significant in the medium term owing to trade diversification, shifts up the export value chain, and the reduced import intensity of Chinese demand. Ironically, other than China, the relative winners list includes the very countries Trump targeted most heavily in his April 2 tariff regime: Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, Pakistan, and the Philippines.
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