Global Key themes 2026: Bullish on US despite AI bubble fears

The global economy should remain in reasonably good shape, and we anticipate solid but unspectacular world GDP growth of 2.7% in 2026. US economic exceptionalism won’t end – in fact, we’re confident that US GDP growth will outperform the consensus by some margin in 2026. However, we’re more cautious about prospects elsewhere.

Three key themes will play a crucial role in shaping the global economy in 2026:

1. The new global trade order – Act II. In contrast to a year ago, when the key uncertainty was by how much US tariffs might rise, the main unknown now is the knock-on effects of high US tariff rates. We expect tariffs to have more of a dampening impact on US imports than the consensus. Meanwhile, policymakers in China will continue the push to expand manufacturing, resulting in further falls in export prices.
2. Will AI continue to act as a shock absorber or swing to a shock magnifier? The surge in US AI-related capex has countered the adverse effects of extreme uncertainty this year. In 2026, the path for AI investment is looking more vulnerable as it shifts to more debt-financing, so a sharp correction could yet unfold.
3. It’s all about the fiscal impulse. Further modest policy rate cuts by central banks are likely in 2026 but the precise path is probably inconsequential for economies’ growth prospects. Any policy-driven growth surprises next year will probably come from the fiscal side.

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