Webinar

US Mid-year Outlook – Bumpy Road

8 July 2026 – 10.00am EST (New York)

online

The economy remains resilient, but the economic costs of the conflict in the Middle East will be more visible in the second half of the year.

The good news is that the economy has shock absorbers, including AI. AI-related capex is surging, but we expect the net boost to GDP growth will remain close to a few tenths of a percentage point. The potential for new tariffs, USMCA negotiation, uncertainty around inflation and the potential for a hawkish Federal Reserve will ensure that the second half of the year eventful. In this webinar we will discuss the outlook for the second half of the year and highlight the key risks that could shape the economy’s trajectory heading into 2027.

This webinar is being held on our new platform, ON24. If you do not receive your confirmation email, please check your junk and spam folders.

Speakers

Ryan Sweet

Ryan Sweet is the Chief Economist | Managing Director at Oxford Economics where he helps shape and coordinate the team’s global economic analysis and forecasting. Previously, Ryan was the Chief US Economist and led a team that was among the most accurate high-frequency forecasters of the economy.

Prior to joining Oxford Economics, Ryan spent 17 years at Moody’s Analytics as a member of the U.S. macroeconomics team and was also a co-host of the Inside Economics podcast. Ryan has also been an adjunct professor in the Economics and Finance Department at West Chester University of Pennsylvania.

Ryan received a master’s degree in finance from John’s Hopkins University, a master’s degree in economics from the University of Delaware, and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Washington College.

Chief Global Economist

Michael Pearce

Michael Pearce is Chief US Economist at Oxford Economics, based in New York. He leads US macroeconomic research and forecasting, and his team is ranked among Bloomberg’s top forecasters for major US economic indicators. Before joining Oxford Economics, Michael was a senior economist on the US team at Capital Economics and worked at HM Treasury in the UK. He holds degrees in Economic History from the London School of Economics and in Economics from University College London, and has lived and worked in the UK and Switzerland.

Chief US Economist