Research Briefing
The cost of debt for real estate has risen steeply in recent months, as credit conditions tighten, loan margins widen,...
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Research Briefing
The cost of debt for real estate has risen steeply in recent months, as credit conditions tighten, loan margins widen,...
Research Briefing
African purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings for Q3 2022 reflect economic weakness on the continent and we expect GDP data...
Research Briefing
We expect eurozone industrial production to contract by a cumulative 3% over the next few quarters due to the severe...
Research Briefing
We estimate the recent surge in swap rates – a key driver of mortgage rates – means that UK house...
Research Briefing
Further moderate downgrades to the near-term outlook for advanced economies (AEs) have pushed our global GDP forecast perilously close to...
BoE governor Andrew Bailey's insistence that emergency support will end on Friday is an unsustainable position that we expect to...
Research Briefing
More needs to be done to increase female participation in the workplace, which will allow Japan to significantly raise its...
Research Briefing
According to the proposal of the German government's expert commission around half of the recently agreed €200bn fiscal package or...
Research Briefing
The September jobs data report and the August JOLTS offered some signs of a loosening in labor market conditions. Job...
Research Briefing
The National Bank of Poland (NBP) kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.75% yesterday, undershooting consensus and our expectation of...
Research Briefing
The pieces are almost in place for a high conviction OW on Asian local currency debt, but not quite. Indeed, we maintain a...
Research Briefing
The question of debt restructuring is becoming a more pressing one: in recent weeks, a number of African sovereigns have...
Research Briefing
The ongoing surge in mortgage rates in advanced economies threatens to push some housing markets into steep downturns. Housing prices...
Research Briefing
As far as markets are concerned, the Fed's expected path of short term rates, peaking at 4.4% early next year,...
Research Briefing
Lula da Silva (PT) won the first round of the presidential election with 48% of the votes. He is favourite...
Research Briefing
Data for Q3 on the volume of China's imports of crude from Russia show a drop against the June level....
Research Briefing
Although easing restrictions in China have helped to reduce global supply chain pressures, we expect rising costs and weakening demand...
Research Briefing
The evidence of the past year shows that inflation has been far from transitory. But we still believe supply factors...
Research Briefing
The Global Climate Service quantifies the macroeconomic impacts of five climate scenarios against a stated policies baseline. These scenarios help...
Research Briefing
The government's levelling up ambition has probably been made more, not less, difficult by the new "Plan for Growth". Policies...