Research Briefing | Dec 21, 2022

Most US metros see modest growth in 2023

We forecast GDP will increase in 32 of the 50 largest metros in 2023. Tech metros and those with significant tourism activity are expected to see the strongest growth, while metros with large manufacturing sectors are likely to trail.

What you will learn:

  • Metros leading GDP growth in 2023 include tech-heavy ones such as San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle, and Boston. Although the tech sector will decelerate sharply, it is still expected to maintain stronger GDP growth than most sectors. Other leading metros—Honolulu, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, and San Diego—will be fueled by leisure and hospitality.
  • Metros with a large manufacturing sector will suffer the biggest GDP declines with Virginia Beach, Cleveland, St. Louis, Chicago, and Cincinnati lagging the top 50 metros.
  • Consumption growth will remain positive in all large metros, despite high inflation, as the pent-up demand to spend especially on services, travel, and dining out is forecast to continue, particularly in metros with high-paying jobs and job growth.
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