Research Briefing
The Federal Reserve's policy strategy review is likely to codify what officials are already doing in practice – regular inflation...
Monetary policy
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Displaying 1 to 20 of 349 results
Research Briefing
Rate cuts by the European Central Bank over the course of 2025 may not boost growth to the same degree...
Webinar
Chinese policymakers have doubled down in recent months in signalling a strong policy response to the economy’s domestic and external...
The eurozone economy remains stuck in a low gear and we have recently cut our growth forecasts as a result...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan raised the policy rate by 0.25ppts to 0.5% at Friday's meeting, as we expected. We maintain...
Research Briefing
We think that valid concerns about the quality of data from the UK's Labour Force Survey (LFS) make it virtually...
Research Briefing
Our probability of recession models are approaching their zero bound and are at their lowest levels in more than two...
Research Briefing
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 0.25% at Thursday's meeting, as we expected. We believe that the...
Research Briefing
We now believe that the Bank of Japan will wait until January to hike the policy rate. We previously assumed...
Research Briefing
Oxford Economics' new proprietary business cycle indicator shows that real US construction spending is firmly in a decelerating growth phase.
Research Briefing
The ruling Liberal Democratic party and its partner Komeito lost their majority in Japan's lower house elections on Sunday, which...
Research Briefing
We expect growth across the Nordic economies to pick up in the near term, with quarterly growth in Sweden and...
Research Briefing
Hopes of a consumer spending recovery becoming the driving engine of eurozone growth in 2024 have not materialised. Private consumption...
Research Briefing
Treasuries have stumbled since the Federal Open Market Committee's aggressive 50bp rate cut in September, but our baseline longer-term outlook...
Research Briefing
Our sentiment data, developed with Penta, suggests that labour market conditions have loosened and pay growth has slowed abruptly through...
Research Briefing
Lacklustre eurozone growth momentum looks unlikely to meaningfully pick up before the end of the year. Our GDP nowcasting models...
Research Briefing
We now expect the Bank of Japan will implement an additional rate hike this year, possibly in October, given the...
Research Briefing
We estimate that Japan's nominal neutral interest rate – the rate consistent with monetary policy that is neither stimulative nor...
Research Briefing
At Wednesday's policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised the policy rate to 0.25% without clear evidence of wage-driven...
Blog|3 July 2024 Risks in our Q2 IFRS 9 and CECL scenarios more evenly spread reflecting monetary policy and geopolitical...
