Research Briefing
Research Briefing Australia Faces Election risk, but migration stabilisation on track
Macroeconomics
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Research Briefing
US President Trump has announced a new tranche of 'reciprocal' tariffs, establishing a 10% minimum tariff on all trading partners,...
Economic activity has firmed up recently, but inflation surprised on the upside in early 2025 and the international policy environment...
While the direct macro effects of new (and potential) US tariffs could prove manageable for an economy with China's fiscal...
Research Briefing
We've upgraded our 2025 GDP growth forecast for Australia by 0.2ppts to 2.1%. Growth in 2024 was in line with...
Webinar
The extent of the H2 2024 slowdown appears to have been exaggerated by residual seasonality in the GDP data, but...
Executive Summary
This quarter’s scenarios quantify key risks to the global economy. These relate primarily to trade protectionism and other geopolitical tensions,...
Blog
It was fantastic to welcome our esteemed clients and guests to our economic forecasting conference in Sydney, Melbourne and online.
The return of President Trump to the White House has been accompanied by a flurry of executive actions, statements, and...
Research Briefing
We see little evidence that inflation will take a significant turn for the worse, which suggests that the risks of...
Data Insights
The RBA has changed its policy rate for the first time since November 2023, cutting the cash rate by 25...
Research Briefing
The Q4 CPI data provoked a sharp reaction in markets, with the probability of a cash rate cut in February...
The solid rise in the trade balance in November was largely driven by stronger export values.
The rise in the unemployment rate in December does little to change the fact that the labour market is incredibly tight.
CPI inflation was weak once again in Q4, with the headline measure increasing by just 0.2% q/q. Inflation has now...
October was another solid month for retail sales, with turnover increasing 0.6% m/m. Sales growth was driven by household goods in October,...
Research Briefing
We think Australia's growth prospects are set to improve in 2025. Lower inflation will be supportive of the growth outlook,...
Research Briefing
The Federal government has changed tack on fiscal policy, signalling it will run a much easier stance of policy from...
Research Briefing
The Australian labour market has outperformed expectations over the past two years. From a very tight starting point, employment has...
Research Briefing
We've kept our GDP growth forecasts unchanged at 1.1% for 2024 and 2.0% for 2025. We've seen some signs the...
