Research Briefing
Our analysis of key economic indicators suggests on balance the economy is in the mid-cycle phase of the business cycle....
Inflation
Are we now stuck in a high inflation world? Temporarily high inflation has lasted for longer than anyone predicted and inflation is set to rise further from here. Might we have actually entered into a new, higher, regime for inflation? Find out more about our GDP inflation forecast.
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Research Briefing
Elevated inflation is giving policymakers in Central and Eastern Europe headaches. Two of the regions’ outperformers, Poland and Hungary, are...
Research Briefing
Following record declines in 2020, we forecast strong 6.1% pa APAC GDP growth over the next two years. Nonetheless, the...
Research Briefing
Progress in passing the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and official adoption of the Nafex rate are two significant policy steps...
Research Briefing
Eurozone inflation is set to push above the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2018. But we think...
Research Briefing
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has played a key role in leading India’s pandemic policy response. While elevated inflation...
Research Briefing
Ranking near the top in nearly every metric, Salt Lake City has recovered 94% of its lost jobs from the...
Research Briefing
Midwestern and Southern state labor market recoveries are still outpacing the rest of the country. Labor demand has strengthened most...
Research Briefing
Sweden’s economy grew by 0.4% in May according to the monthly GDPindicator. This followed strong growth in March and a...
Research Briefing
Amid deadlock within OPEC+, speculation is rising that Saudi Arabia and the UAE have reached a compromise over production quotas,...
Research Briefing
Another upside inflation surprise points to the CPI measure peaking much higher than we previously thought. But June’s rise in...
Research Briefing
We have raised our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 2.6% previously to reflect a revised softer economic decline...
Research Briefing
Following a mild contraction in Q1, the Finnish economy is now in the earlystages of a broad-based recovery. Most national...
Research Briefing
The government’s announcement that most of the remaining Covid restrictions are likely to be removed on July 19 has bolstered...
Research Briefing
The transition to a greener economy through changes in government climate policy, technology, investment, and consumer preferences will fuel huge...
Commodity price surges were associated with spikes in inflation in the 1970s, but have not been so in recent decades....
Research Briefing
For the first time in nearly a decade, Spain will see inflation average over 2% this year. Indeed, in the...
Research Briefing
The MPC now thinks CPI inflation could exceed 3% this year, with the risk of an even bigger overshoot of...
Inflation has become the all-consuming focus of investors’ attention in recent weeks. On the surface the story is simple—transitory factors...
Research Briefing
A shift to a new policy regime with much higher and more volatile inflation is a possibility that can’t be...
