Research Briefing | Aug 18, 2021

UK | Inflation set to rebound sharply after July lull

UK | Inflation set to rebound sharply after July lull

July’s fall in inflation is likely to represent only brief respite for consumers. After a larger than expected rise in the energy price cap, we now expect CPI inflation to reach 3.5% before the end of the year.

What you will learn:

  • But while inflation is likely to move much higher in H2 2021, we expect the pickup to prove transitory and expect CPI inflation to return to 2% by end-2022.
  • CPI inflation slowed from 2.5% in June to 2.0% in July.
  • The ONS attributed almost half of the slowdown to strong base effects caused by a spike in prices last year when the economy reopened after lockdown.

Back to Resource Hub

Related Services

Post

UK: Supply constraints are probably less prominent in the south

The extent to which UK employers can respond to likely 2024 interest rate cuts with increased output, rather than rises in prices and wages, will partly reflect the extent of spare capacity. This will inevitably vary by region. Evidence on this is imperfect, but in terms of capital assets (including intangibles) and labour availability, southern regions appear to be in a stronger position than those in the UK's traditional industrial heartland.

Find Out More

Post

Global Private equity real estate fund maturities spur asset sales

We expect the significant increases in fund maturities, spurred by capital raised over the past decade, to exert upward pressure on the rate of asset disposals as the funds approach the end of their lifecycles.

Find Out More