Research Briefing
Despite a flattening of the yield curve and some position squaring of the socalled reflation trade, we believe our key...
Debt and savings
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Research Briefing
Hard data indicate a positive start to Q2, and we expect the economy tostrengthen further through the summer. While a...
Research Briefing
Technical factors will push inflation up in the short-term and the fallout from the pandemic will raise inflation risks further...
Research Briefing
Our June forecasts contained a substantial upward revision to growth in 2021 and 2022. We now forecast growth of 5.3%...
Research Briefing
A series of bond sales across the GCC have taken place. Saudi Aramco isselling its first dollar-dominated Islamic bonds in...
Research Briefing
After a weak Q1 for the global economy, our baseline forecast is for a strong growth rebound in Q2, and...
Research Briefing
Our baseline forecast sees a strong rebound in eurozone economic activity as vaccinations bring the pandemic under control, but this...
Research Briefing
A great uncertainty for the growth outlook is the extent to which households will spend the additional savings they’ve accumulated...
Research Briefing
Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in mid-2021....
Research Briefing
Spend, save, and pay down debt – that’s exactly what US consumers did in early 2021. This supported a 14ppts...
Research Briefing
Despite Covid cases rising globally, upside risks to our already relatively optimistic baseline are material. The main risk stems from...
Research Briefing
Our thorough analysis of inflation risks shows that Mexico should be the first to join Brazil in the rate-hiking club...
Research Briefing
Norway’s economy is restrained by activity restrictions that aim to maintain tight control over the pandemic. However, once containment measures ease,...
Research Briefing
Recent survey and high-frequency data have boosted hopes that the economy is in the early stages of a strong rebound...
Research Briefing
Since the start of the pandemic, eurozone countries have been able to relax fiscal policy without worrying about the eurozone’s...
Research Briefing
Asian currencies have broadly struggled in recent months due to the strengthening of the US dollar on the back of...
Research Briefing
We have revised up our forecasts for eurozone private consumption, and now envisage spending increasing 3.1% in 2021 and by...
Research Briefing
Could fiscal stimulus lead to economic overheating? Our assessment suggests that while that’s a risk, it’s not a foregone conclusion,...
Research Briefing
China is a significant net creditor to the rest of the world. At the end of 2020, its foreign assets...
Research Briefing
CPI inflation is set to rise well above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target this spring and will likely surpass...
