Global | Is this a goldilocks recovery? Consumers will decide
Despite Covid cases rising globally, upside risks to our already relatively optimistic baseline are material. The main risk stems from the estimated $4.7trn pile of excess savings accumulated by consumers in advanced economies that could be tapped to unleash a wave of post pandemic spending.
What you will learn from this report:
- Our baseline estimates advanced economy consumers will spend on average 5% of these savings. But if they splash out even a little more, the 2022 growth outlook will rise considerably.
- Whether consumers view their excess savings as wealth or as income is key to determining the size of the boost to the economy.
- For emerging markets, there is also upside but it is more limited. Although faster global growth is helpful for emerging markets, the associated tightening of financial conditions is a significant offset.
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.Find Out More
APAC Key themes 2024 – A year of living cautiously
In 2024, the main influence on Asia is likely to be a global slowdown, particularly in China and the US. Moreover, governments have limited policy space to deal with these headwinds. Other negative influences, however, are set to ease further, including domestic inflation, external pressure on interest rates, and softening semiconductor prices. Overall, we expect a bumpy year as issues become more country-specific and policy responses and economic outcomes diverge.Find Out More