Australia | Alternate recovery paths shaped by key risks
Vaccine programs across the world are well underway and should enable a sustained and meaningful easing of restrictions in mid-2021. But as we have seen in Australia, vaccine rollouts have not been immune to supply disruptions and efficacy concerns, which are threatening to keep international borders restricted for longer. Using our Global Economic Model, we consider three alternate recovery scenarios.
What you will learn:
- The path beyond COVID-19 is now largely dependent on the rollout and effectiveness of national vaccine programs. Logistical hurdles remain and high levels of transmission in some countries could develop new variants.
- Long term bond yields have already risen this year in response to inflation expectations.
- Inflation risks higher than usual due to large fiscal responses and climbing commodity prices.
Africa Watchlist 2024: Devaluations, coups, and green hydrogen
Next year holds promise for the dawning of a new industry in Africa and somewhat of a commercial renaissance taking place in Kenya – East Africa’s economic anchor. Our watchlist for 2024 also foregrounds major currency devaluations in Ethiopia and Egypt and a strong probability of coups d’état in Cameroon and Tunisia. We expect support for the African National Congress (ANC) to drop below 50% in South Africa's general elections, but that coalitions with smaller parties will allow the ruling party to cling to power.Find Out More
Capital catalysts – Funding development when budgets are tight in Africa
In this presentation deck, we grappled with some of the Africa’s most pressing issues for 2024 and beyond. We explored Africa’s alternative funding strategies during challenging times, examined the continent’s growth hotspot, and unpacked South Africa’s political economy in the lead up to the general elections in 2024.Find Out More