Australian Commercial Property Services
Office, retail, and industrial property forecasts for investment planning, leasing strategy, and portfolio management.
Overview
Independent 15-year forecasts across Australia’s office, retail, and industrial property markets
Australia’s commercial property markets are navigating significant structural and cyclical change. Office demand is being reshaped by hybrid work and employment growth. Retail is evolving with shifting consumer behaviour and online spending. Industrial markets are being driven by e-commerce and supply chain restructuring. Each sector, and each city, is moving at its own pace.
Oxford Economics’ Australia’s Commercial Property Services deliver 15-year forecasts of rents, yields, capital values, and internal rates of return across all three sectors, alongside live databases tracking 1,000+ commercial and 1,500+ industrial projects at the site level, updated quarterly by economists you can speak to directly.
Why Oxford Economics?
Commercial property decisions are long-horizon and high-stakes. Oxford Economics Australia brings together deep property expertise, globally consistent macroeconomic standards, and live project intelligence to deliver insights that hold up under scrutiny across the full property cycle.
15-year forecasts
Long-run office, retail, and industrial property forecasts grounded in macroeconomic and sector-specific demand modelling.
Key investment metrics
Rents, yields, vacancy rates, capital values, and internal rates of return across all sectors, cities, and precincts.
Live project databases
1,000+ commercial and 1,500+ industrial projects tracked at site level, with competitor Market Mapper tools and geographic visualisation.
40+ years of expertise
Our property economists bring more than four decades of combined experience in commercial property forecasting, market research, and data analysis
Model-backed and independent
Forecasts built on Oxford Economics Australia’s macroeconomic framework, linking GDP, employment, income growth, and interest rates to property demand outcomes. Entirely independent of transactions and investment activity.
Consistent methodology
A unified framework applied across all sectors, cities, and precincts. Historical data going back to the 1980 ensures like-for-like comparisons are reliable and benchmarking is meaningful across your portfolio.
How it helps
Our services support investment planning, leasing strategy, development decisions, portfolio benchmarking, market entry, and risk management, used individually or together for a consistent view across your entire commercial property portfolio.
What’s included?
Our commercial property services deliver sector-specific forecasts, independent analysis, live project databases, and flexible data access across three distinct property markets.
Office property forecasts and analysis
Australia’s office markets are highly cyclical, and no two cities behave the same. Our service provides precinct-level intelligence across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, and Canberra, linking white-collar employment directly to office demand and property market outcomes.
- Nine markets covered
- 15-year forecasts
- Quarterly updates
- White-collar employment forecasts
- Rents, vacancy, yields, and IRR
- Net absorption and supply pipeline
- Historical data from the 1980s
- Geographic coverage: Sydney CBD and suburban centres, Melbourne CBD, near-city, and suburban centres, Brisbane, Canberra, Adelaide, and Perth.
- Key demand indicators: Metropolitan total, white-collar, and office workforce forecasts by industry sector, underpinning space demand across each market.
- Key supply indicators: Net absorption, stock completions, withdrawals, and net additions across each city.
- Key property indicators: Gross and net stated and effective rentals, leasing incentives, vacancy rates, yields, capital values, and internal rates of return.
- Quarterly updates: Forecasts refreshed quarterly to reflect the latest economic conditions, leasing activity, and supply pipeline changes.
- In-house briefing: Presentation, webinar, or teleconference with our office property economists, included as part of the subscription.
Retail property forecasts and analysis
Our service connects macroeconomic conditions and consumer spending trends directly to retail property outcomes across regional, sub-regional, and neighbourhood shopping centres at a national level.
- Three centre types
- 15-year forecasts
- Retail turnover by category and state
- Net operating income, yields, and IRR
- Consumer spending analysis
- Historical data from the 1980s
- Key indicators: Retail turnover by category and state, centre net operating income, yields, capital values, and internal rates of return.
- Consumer spending analysis: In-depth coverage of retail turnover trends by category and state, including the structural impact of online spending growth.
- Historical data: Long-run data going back to the 1980s, providing essential context for benchmarking and cycle positioning.
- Retail Property Outlook report: Concise, executive-ready report covering all three centre types with baseline forecasts, key narrative drivers, and forward-looking market assessment.
- In-house briefing: Presentation, webinar, or teleconference with our retail property economists, included as part of the subscription.
Industrial property forecasts and analysis
Our service delivers precinct-level forecasts across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, linking trade volumes, retail spending, and employment conditions directly to industrial property outcomes.
- Five metro markets
- Precinct-level detail
- 15-year forecasts
- Bi-annual updates
- Rents, vacancy, yields, and IRR
- Net absorption and supply pipeline
- 40+ years of expertise
- Geographic coverage: Precinct-level forecasts for Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth.
- Key demand and supply indicators: Metropolitan-wide industrial stock, net completions, net additions, indicative net absorption, and indicative vacancy rates.
- Key property indicators: Stated and effective net rentals, leasing incentives, yields, capital values, and internal rates of return across each city’s key industrial precincts.
- Bi-annual updates: Service updated twice a year to reflect the latest economic conditions, leasing activity, and supply pipeline developments.
- In-house briefing: Presentation, webinar, or teleconference with our industrial property economists, available as part of the subscription.
Live project databases and competitor intelligence
Our project databases give you granular visibility of the commercial and industrial property development pipeline, with detailed stakeholder intelligence and competitor mapping tools that forecasts alone cannot provide.
Commercial property project database
Tracking 1,000+ commercial projects (office, retail, and accommodation) valued over $30 million across Australia.
- Five-year pipeline: Forward visibility of active and planned developments across office, retail, and accommodation assets, updated quarterly at site level.
- Project detail: Build value, area, project status, and key stakeholders, including developer, builder, and architect for every project.
- Competitor Market Mappers: Analyse competitor footprints, track market-share shifts, and pinpoint emerging threats across sectors and geographies. Filter by a range of indicators and visualise activity hotspots geographically.
- Quarterly refresh: Updated by economists each quarter, ensuring pipeline changes are captured promptly.
- Five-year pipeline, quarterly refresh
- 1,000+ commercial projects over $30m
- Office, retail, and accommodation
- Build value, area, and stakeholder data
Industrial property project database
Tracking 1,500+ industrial projects (warehouse, factory, and data centre) valued over $5 million across Australia.
- Five-year pipeline: Forward visibility of active and planned industrial developments across Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, updated quarterly at site level.
- Project detail: Build value, area, project status, and key stakeholders, including developer, builder, and architect for every project.
- Competitor Market Mappers: Use Oxford Economics’ powerful Competitor Market Mappers to analyse competitor footprints, track market-share shifts, and identify underserved markets across the industrial segment.
- Quarterly refresh: Updated by economists each quarter, fully integrated with our industrial property forecasts.
- Five-year pipeline, quarterly refresh
- 1,500+ industrial projects over $5m
- Warehouse, factory, and data centres
- Competitor Market Mappers and geographic heat
How can we help you?
Our services are used by a wide range of organisations across Australia’s commercial property markets.
Here is how we can support your specific decisions:
Investors and asset managers
Assess market conditions, identify assets with strong forward return prospects, and stress-test investment assumptions against independent forecasts.
- Which cities and precincts offer the strongest forward-looking rental and capital growth prospects?
- Where are office, retail, or industrial markets in the cycle, and what does that mean for entry and exit timing?
- How would different economic scenarios affect yields, capital values, and portfolio returns?
Developers and development managers
Assess feasibility, time market entry, and understand supply pipeline dynamics using long-run, precinct-level forecasts and live project databases.
- What is the demand outlook for office, retail, or industrial space in my target markets over the next five to 15 years?
- How is the supply pipeline evolving across key precincts, and where are the gaps?
- What are the forward leasing incentive and effective rental expectations I should be modelling?
Occupiers and corporate real estate
Plan your real estate footprint with confidence using independent forecasts of rents, vacancy, and market conditions.
- Where are rents and incentives heading in my target markets, and what does that mean for my lease strategy?
- Which cities or precincts offer the most favourable conditions for consolidation or expansion?
- How will employment growth and workplace trends affect office demand in the cities where we operate?
Retail landlords and shopping centre operators
Understand where retail spending, centre income, and capital values are heading to support leasing strategy and portfolio planning.
- Which centre types and locations offer the strongest forward-looking income and return prospects?
- How will online spending growth and consumer behaviour shifts affect turnover and occupancy in my centres?
- Where do retail spending conditions favour active leasing versus consolidation?
Professional services and advisory
Support clients with independent market intelligence and strategic advice grounded in rigorous commercial property forecasts.
- What independent evidence supports my client’s investment or development strategy?
- How does my client’s portfolio position compare with independent market forecasts and benchmarks?
- What are the forward demand and return conditions for the asset class my client is focused on?
Benefits
Understand where Australia’s commercial property markets are in the cycle and position your investment, leasing, and development strategy accordingly.
Identify growth opportunities
Pinpoint the sectors, cities, and precincts offering the strongest forward-looking rental and return prospects, supported by data-driven analysis of demand drivers, supply pipelines, and macroeconomic conditions.
Benchmark performance
Compare market and precinct-level rents, vacancies, and returns against independent forecasts to assess portfolio positioning and identify underperformance or opportunity.
Future-proof your strategy
Leverage 15-year, model-backed forecasts to plan investment, leasing, and development activity with confidence as employment patterns, consumer behaviour, and economic conditions evolve.
Anticipate market shifts
Stay ahead of turning points in demand, vacancy, rents, and capital values with independent, regularly updated insights from our commercial property and macroeconomic experts.
Latest insights
Testimonials
Oxford Economics is synonymous with high quality macroeconomic research. A compelling reason for us to subscribe to its Real Estate Economics Service.
The Real Estate Economics Service allows us to link the top-down economic outlook, drivers and risks, with our market-level forecasting and return expectation setting. This allows us to be more strategic about our allocations and how to build & maintain a well-diversified portfolio.
As an active international lender for commercial real estate, the expansion of Oxford Economics’s Real Estate Economics Service to include analysis and forecasting of real estate markets is a real gain and represents an addition to the comprehensive service we have been benefitting from for many years
For Transwestern’s asset services, investment management and development businesses, we depend on economic inputs and editorial content that are rational and insightful to inform our decisions. Oxford Economics delivers.
CMHC’s Stress Testing and ORSA team has started this year using Oxford Economics for the purpose of Stress-Testing. Our experience has been very positive. The software is sound, intuitive and user friendly. But most of all, it allows the user to understand the links between the variables and for a certain degree of customization. Without naming the tool that CMCH used prior to this year, it goes without saying the OE represents a significant upgrade over the previous tool. Further, we have also contracted OE to help us design Stress-Test scenarios. The support we have received from the team was excellent, especially during the early days of the COVID19 Pandemic. Alex, Zach, Tim, and the rest of the team, really went above and beyond to help us meet our corporate objectives.
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