Why legislative elections in France threaten the economic landscape

The approaching French legislative elections are defined by serious political risks. Our baseline sees Macron’s presidential coalition winning the majority in the assembly, so policy continuity should be ensured. But the results are far from certain, especially since left-wing parties have joined forces to present common candidates with the aim of forcing Macron to appoint a prime minister from their group.

What you will learn:

• The policy agenda would look extremely different in such a case as the programme of the left coalition diverges radically from the president’s.
• The consequences for the economy would be significant in this case.
• Under the left coalition’s stated policies, public finances would deteriorate markedly – public debt could soar above 150% of GDP by 2027.