China | Why China’s subsidy to the world is likely to endure
China is a significant net creditor to the rest of the world. At the end of 2020, its foreign assets totaled US$8,704 billion, or 59.1% of GDP, compared with foreign liabilities of US$6,554 billion, or 44.5% of GDP.
Nonetheless, earnings on foreign liabilities (foreign capital in China) substantially exceed those on foreign assets (China’s investment abroad). In fact, the average rate of return of 6.0% on inbound capital in 2020 was double that on outbound capital.
Download the report to find out:
- Why is the gap in return so large?
- Will the yield gap narrow?
- Will China’s foreign assets and liabilities continue to rise?
Finland’s growth forecast cut amid weak confidence and soaring inflation
We have lowered our 2022 GDP growth forecast for Finland to 1.5% from 1.7% last month, as weakening confidence further dampens the outlook. We expect inflation to peak higher with a greater passthrough to core prices, squeezing real incomes and denting consumption. Russia has accounted for almost 10% of Finland's goods trade, among the highest in Europe.Find Out More
Why we see eurozone inflation slowing sharply next year
We have revised our 2022 eurozone inflation forecasts sharply higher, to 6.0%, since the start of the Ukraine war, as energy and food prices began to soar and new supply bottlenecks emerged. That said, we still see inflation decelerating sharply to 1.3% in 2023, putting us below consensus. While we recognise significant risks to our views, inflation should slow to below 2% in H2 2023.Find Out More